{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
  "slug": "what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the Fed Rate hit 0% before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "fed-rates",
    "economic-policy",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the federal funds target rate will breach specific upper or lower bound thresholds before December 31, 2026. Upper-bound markets span 4.25% to 5.5%; lower-bound markets span 0% to 3.25%, forming a full strike ladder across both tightening and easing scenarios. Each binary resolves independently, so the ladder implies a cumulative probability distribution across the policy rate path. Resolution follows the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official announcements, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9F39R0JLQ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.017,
    "implied_probability": 0.017
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JCBR4CWFZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0a95717208bdb1c1167877eb5b19085494f68ed9b074d8dfc7d76b549fcbe7bb",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 5.0%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.033,
      "implied_probability": 0.033,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16819.27893200006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-99FE2CB31C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what federal reserve rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TX3FMSVWX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x728246cda497e10289a7145245675e2baece6561ba784760b0914108e6e42c04",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 5.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 142193.07450700016,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8F3E2A72E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what federal reserve rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L61G3H9LW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x784b640e50d8db8ff5b36904fe9ecd1b3a261f4d3a0cd20adcfb7156e066ca78",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 4.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 78697.67897100006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B0FCD8957",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what federal reserve rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q06SQ5L8B5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfc96144ac92b856a86dfde02939ccb9ec4bd997c424aa2f68b35dce0651f99f",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↓ 2.0%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.029,
      "implied_probability": 0.029,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18548.255104999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1FF09CC5DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what federal reserve rate"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-787PW6KX56",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x803d1018e9b81b886b3ef242de57f0d6ebee3313d0728c57eed0a146d56a3bff",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↓ 1.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.014,
      "implied_probability": 0.014,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3331.741925000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CEFB20DCE3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what federal reserve rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XLWNCP3YS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0c37533837ed4d3378494fcd9ea7043d03cc3af9443d68dfa0414984efcbaff9",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↓ 1.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10423.676517,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-932F7458DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what federal reserve rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FKVWL8R620",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e15f0f425d28b87024ba9f19504e074da257e3d231d3222618a67c5c0f600ba",
      "question": "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official websi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↓ 0.5%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official monetary policy announcements resolve whether the target federal funds rate lower bound reaches the specified level by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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      "question": "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?",
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}