{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
  "slug": "what-will-happen-before-gta-vi",
  "question": "Will a significant event occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "pop-culture",
    "politics",
    "gta-vi",
    "before-event",
    "prediction-market",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether various geopolitical, cultural, or technological events occur before GTA VI releases, with a deadline of July 31, 2026. Each binary resolves on whichever outcome happens first: the listed event or the game's release. All ten markets use Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle for resolution. The resolve_at timestamp of May 9, 2026 precedes the close date, creating a potential settlement window gap traders should monitor.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3HGLT71T20",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.5,
    "implied_probability": 0.5
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MMPKQGVDF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763",
      "question": "Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if  if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not cou",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-09T04:29:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if  if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1676301.745145051,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "russia ukraine ceasefire"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6BFPGY1824",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1fad72fae204143ff1c3035e99e7c0f65ea8d5cd9bd1070987bd1a3316f772be",
      "question": "New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "New Rihanna Album: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOfficially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nRe-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10435.543165000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 870486.8667820148,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "entertainment",
        "music",
        "rihanna album release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41F30X8VV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50ddb9cd80d5c271664a2ebb7fcaed1d0a148d82c8e8d314d830f75a944c3dcc",
      "question": "New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "New Playboi Carti Album: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOfficially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nRe-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.603917,
      "volume_total_usd": 749248.9620669454,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "entertainment",
        "music",
        "playboi carti album"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3HGLT71T20",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32b09f6390252b37d674501527e709016d55581b2c1e544bd4b8167f5f732f4c",
      "question": "Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jesus Christ returns: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2954.572724,
      "volume_total_usd": 11866244.48168973,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eschatology",
        "jesus christ return",
        "religion"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XCRKFJ1LQ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9",
      "question": "Trump out as President before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Trump out as President: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nAn announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 530.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 702548.1976790089,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "politics",
        "trump exit from",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8MSKVMR253",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11",
      "question": "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "China invades Taiwan: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nAn announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8439.908429000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 1919515.9295560685,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china invasion taiwan",
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9BX7762Q67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2",
      "question": "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final \"High\" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for c",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bitcoin hits $1m: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final \"High\" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.498,
      "implied_probability": 0.498,
      "volume_24h_usd": 975.25178,
      "volume_total_usd": 4687861.002239784,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "crypto",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L1MLQP1GR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ea8005efbc460378340a2f28a6d97b0d1d9d9d7fba4d16f529b8a415dca77a2",
      "question": "Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S)",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "GPT-6 released: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nTo qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 109.93,
      "volume_total_usd": 685103.8930329984,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt release",
        "technology"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MY9NG7DTJ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff",
      "question": "Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolut",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Drake releases Iceman: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-15T09:40:31Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nIceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”\n\nOfficially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nThe full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 184867.9642920002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "drake iceman album",
        "entertainment",
        "music"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WS2RMQ3S15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x71b1cc47f4cfe66e7aefa3705f1e55845a398e61788566463ee73a00f57ab59e",
      "question": "Another pandemic before GTA VI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain conso",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Another Pandemic: The event resolves based on which outcome occurs first by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle, or resolves 50-50 if neither occurs by deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for another pandemic's occurrence will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 82.120783,
      "volume_total_usd": 28678.268834000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "health",
        "pandemic outbreak",
        "public-health"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MY9NG7DTJ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-15T09:40:31Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MMPKQGVDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-09T04:29:49Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}