{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F0H1GY8D68",
  "slug": "what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-july-press-conference-20260720204109027",
  "question": "Will Kevin Warsh make a specific statement during the July press conference?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "fed",
    "fomc",
    "fed-chair",
    "press-conference",
    "speech-analysis"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track specific words and phrases Kevin Warsh may use at the July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference. All 33 contracts are binary yes/no bets on whether a given term appears in the official Federal Reserve transcript or video. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle applied against Federal Reserve Board of Governors transcripts. Phrase-count thresholds, such as \"Inflation\" 40-plus times, introduce ambiguity if transcripts contain partial or informal repetitions.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PRWZG92PP8",
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    "implied_probability": 0.78
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F0H1GY8D68",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb0cbf94b3ced9fb492f55ba124b12a58d00c3dd335dee3f5542254b925663007",
      "question": "Will Warsh say \"Inflation\" 40+ times during July Press Conference?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Inflation 40+ times: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1496.406394,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x05804e6e987e1aae960f4add9c3d20e1e82605234a7e35730d2a1fc6a5424c2c",
      "question": "Will Warsh say \"Inflation\" 20+ times during July Press Conference?",
      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Inflation 20+ times: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "caps": [],
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F0H1GY8D68",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6964d271f39ff1713b85cfb38dff4259100f95b07e78565192bce8de59978ad",
      "question": "Will Warsh say \"Task Force\" 20+ times during July Press Conference?",
      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Task Force 20+ times: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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            "name": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PRWZG92PP8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F0H1GY8D68",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x11783d9c0cc8eb5806b1acf3cb6e44b6ad684aac1c3abb3e9468e2e400bbd83f",
      "question": "Will Warsh say \"Good day\" during July Press Conference?",
      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Good day: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Warsh say \"Independence\" during July Press Conference?",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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      "question": "Will Warsh say \"North Star\" during July Press Conference?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "North Star: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
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        "source_of_record": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
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      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
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            "url": null,
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        "source_of_record": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "question": "Will Warsh say \"Central Bank\" during July Press Conference?",
      "description": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press confere",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Central Bank: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, \"-No Qualifying Event-\" will resolve to \"Yes\" and all other brackets will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Good Afternoon: Official Federal Reserve video and transcripts of the named official's July 29, 2026 FOMC press conference determine whether the specified phrase was spoken during the statement or Q&A session.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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