{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
  "slug": "what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "ethereum",
    "gas-fees",
    "blockchain-metrics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Polymarket markets track whether Ethereum's average monthly gas price will reach discrete Gwei thresholds before January 1, 2027. Each strike — 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 40 Gwei — functions as an independent binary, creating an implied term structure of network congestion expectations. The markets are correlated: a yes on 40 Gwei requires yes on all lower strikes. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the mean_gas value from the Dune Analytics \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" dashboard.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PNX0YXC715",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.047,
    "implied_probability": 0.047,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1NBLCWBP42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6a9daa0a7576efdf9edef5095c120059c80f0ddf6a5af75e0b000a646e0d16e",
      "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027?",
      "description": "his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5 Gwei: The Dune Analytics dashboard's \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" tab mean_gas value resolves this market on January 1, 2027, comparing finalized monthly averages against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nA monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto data sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-19T09:00:57.720Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1496.6674140000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9FF01DDF62",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "ethereum average monthly",
        "gas",
        "gwei"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JYK1VPKTS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a",
      "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 10 Gwei before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10 Gwei: The Dune Analytics dashboard's \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" tab mean_gas value resolves this market on January 1, 2027, comparing finalized monthly averages against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nA monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto data sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-06T10:00:41.025Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1750.844671,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E53125143",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "ethereum average monthly",
        "gas",
        "gwei"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJM1GG8683",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063",
      "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 15 Gwei before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "15 Gwei: The Dune Analytics dashboard's \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" tab mean_gas value resolves this market on January 1, 2027, comparing finalized monthly averages against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nA monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto data sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-07T11:00:40.171Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2602.9055260000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE0BCA5283",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "ethereum average monthly",
        "gas",
        "gwei"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SG3X6XT2Y9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x85d9eadb263a3688205737d1c624458de2f9ef2cc5c1cfbb765babad6bfdcacc",
      "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20 Gwei: The Dune Analytics dashboard's \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" tab mean_gas value resolves this market on January 1, 2027, comparing finalized monthly averages against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nA monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto data sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:00:38.648Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5141.407233999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-498B38B24D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "ethereum average monthly",
        "gas",
        "gwei"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PNX0YXC715",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9ea0030337e6416cfbd5e9a52ffb4c80575953b45a52bc513f2d7ecbe299d5f2",
      "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 25 Gwei before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 Gwei: The Dune Analytics dashboard's \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" tab mean_gas value resolves this market on January 1, 2027, comparing finalized monthly averages against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nA monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
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          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto data sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5150.967242,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0B95864A1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "ethereum average monthly",
        "gas",
        "gwei"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1SB5N9SNR6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5d84b0d831b64feb65dbd8f8b6ff92ac739cfdd13676770d2b13087f1a0d386",
      "question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 40 Gwei before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40 Gwei: The Dune Analytics dashboard's \"Gas Prices Monthly Average\" tab mean_gas value resolves this market on January 1, 2027, comparing finalized monthly averages against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nA monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
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          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.028,
      "implied_probability": 0.028,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-18T12:00:57.100Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2775.845835,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": "CMX-76957830B6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "ethereum average monthly",
        "gas",
        "gwei"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}