{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
  "slug": "what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026",
  "question": "What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index reach in 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "volatility-index",
    "crypto-derivatives",
    "price-movement",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility 30-Day Index reaches discrete strike thresholds in 2026. Four markets price upside strikes at 50, 60, 70, and 80; one prices a downside dip to 30. Together they form a strike ladder across implied volatility space. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using 1-minute candle highs from the Volmex index.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2LD14BMWZ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.999,
    "implied_probability": 0.999
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGGGL50BN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xebea460d0898fb92755e7603832747a7ecffd30e89285d1b45c8b2d2f7b10dea",
      "question": "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 80: Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values on 1-minute candles between January 26, 2026, 11:30 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET determine if the specified threshold is reached.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-05T22:31:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "charts.volmex.finance",
            "url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Volmex",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Volmex",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1898.138876,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": "CMX-66746A6CA7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin volatility index",
        "btc",
        "vix",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2LD14BMWZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xec35031d09ed1aa5a77e322136f1081c47fb3d7a0a34cd6ec63f0eb3992ec876",
      "question": "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 60: Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values on 1-minute candles between January 26, 2026, 11:30 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET determine if the specified threshold is reached.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-05T15:09:21Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Volmex",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Volmex",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7834.823363,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 60,
      "question_id": "CMX-E07CA17A6F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin volatility index",
        "btc",
        "vix",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WW3YM0YW45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x335ae64f54e14b6aab5b2964fdeb78718ac0b5f030ff3e8b87d30daf9b2ab691",
      "question": "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"Low\" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"Low\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↓ 30: Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values on 1-minute candles between January 26, 2026, 11:30 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET determine if the specified threshold is reached.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"Low\" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"Low\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "charts.volmex.finance",
            "url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Volmex",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Volmex",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 483.526717,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": "CMX-E650C290EE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin volatility index",
        "btc",
        "vix",
        "volatility"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VFVR34Y9V9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc80f525c15134106441c7e30b036457dd10cf82a6ef118a53ac2914e5a6625e4",
      "question": "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 70: Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values on 1-minute candles between January 26, 2026, 11:30 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET determine if the specified threshold is reached.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-05T17:59:17Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "charts.volmex.finance",
            "url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
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          {
            "name": "Volmex",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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        "source_of_record": "Volmex",
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        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4216.765916,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 70,
      "question_id": "CMX-C7D0E3B6B1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "btc",
        "vix",
        "volatility"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MDQK03NR06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a1897faebc04203339a93e79d19fc40927452b08535bc59a043a623e2e818df",
      "question": "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 50: Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values on 1-minute candles between January 26, 2026, 11:30 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET determine if the specified threshold is reached.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-31T22:26:30Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index \"High\" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Volmex",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7661.250866,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-76A135C4C1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin volatility index",
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        "vix",
        "volatility"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGGGL50BN5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-05T22:31:53Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VFVR34Y9V9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-05T17:59:17Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2LD14BMWZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-05T15:09:21Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MDQK03NR06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-31T22:26:30Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
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}