{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
  "slug": "what-will-trump-say-in-august-20260728181847522",
  "question": "What will Trump say in August?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "speech-content",
    "august-2026",
    "prediction-market",
    "rhetoric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Trump verbally uses specific words or phrases in publicly accessible audio or video recordings during August 2026. All 35 markets are Polymarket binaries, each resolving via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against documented spoken instances. Terms range from profanity to political phrases, creating a cross-phrase implied-probability surface. Resolution hinges on verifier consensus over publicly accessible recordings within the observation window closing August 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2Z836D2H86",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.52,
    "implied_probability": 0.52
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JYNSHL2G86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd412b99122eff6c9cd35ccbef7485ab47ad80a9b29a61cf4373079c6c3f496d0",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Ass\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ass: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3449.473638,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what trump say"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4P75CW9B60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74ac11a873ef486dc135e6408daaa8fff91a4a242adb334dec3d07149cb3b273",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Shit\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shit: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 234.527075,
      "volume_total_usd": 1894.0202470000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what trump say"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-26N6Y11RQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9c8bc273be69fe61ec89f531512cd1de9d57944347975bcd17f79792b064fefe",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Red Card\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Red Card: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 259.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what trump say"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H7YZ0Q3RN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe23af955225ff427d96e39392a23f26fce70c9b09335415bba20a54c25c8c995",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Death to America\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Death to America: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 300.238274,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what trump say"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZYR4XNMP26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd70cc9c42f84fdb1237ba3233d146d215e8af896c6d86c1143f45593a93bab25",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Sucker\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sucker: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 894.7695180000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what trump say"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MD7P41G727",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x905f6fe7d490f9ff97da923e502b0e46ad4912c54e6bf264558abc423df96fcb",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Slob\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Slob: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 527.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "what trump say"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DT7SG0FF86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZH5M3MP7C0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfe4a963fc895392ee2ebc88316f8daf1bbb7c2efb1f25525bb1f506e9f9588e0",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Garbage\" in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Garbage: The named candidate's verbal mentions of the referenced term in publicly accessible audio or video recordings between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Tango\" in August?",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Marxist\" in August?",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Dictionary\" in August?",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Through the Roof\" in August?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Presidential Walk of Fame\" in August?",
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