{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
  "slug": "what-will-trump-say-this-week-july-20-july-26-20260719005322431",
  "question": "Will Trump make a public statement this week (July 20 - July 26)?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "weekly-statement",
    "2026",
    "prediction-market",
    "speech-content"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Trump utters specific words or phrases during the week of July 20 through July 26, 2026. Each binary contract is independent, covering a distinct term from geopolitical names to sports figures to rhetorical catchphrases. All 31 markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against verified public utterances in that window. Excluded speech categories are defined in each contract's source specification.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QDKBTFMYJ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.999
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WCJRMK0T08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x01ef33ef108c31907019484a70c0c8da5200cf1fb3f559d1988c08b88ca4b8ab",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Six Seven\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Six Seven: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.44444,
      "volume_total_usd": 590.564934,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GFSW4B2D73",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x214ab8c185605a47651f679fce157929abdd55db24e969b4473a17081bb87268",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Messi\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Messi: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X5Q0F6K7X6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c6d8a53709a628c2fd12770fb77bde9291ded01051f32e89561419da6809a3b",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Spain\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Spain: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8.571425,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CX79FQHRN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x07b2d4a97fe2326decdfa10bfdf31c79ac15991affa858d0c1f75f0bb1594204",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"President Xi\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "President Xi: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": 147.572,
      "volume_total_usd": 147.572,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-75CMFNMM47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xab877530b537f88cd59b51e1b08c491369b5c3ef17952880c4cf8b572f43c4f7",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Rigged\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rigged: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x09efc5648e2e66f350305c506b18006692e533599fa7550e6e68dbc2b1259697",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Egg\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Egg: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-22T22:04:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8a8ee8073cd4a56c662d8c9a6501228343caeab647c8ce4d4d7e8767cd6332ad",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Ronaldo\" this week?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ronaldo: The named candidate's spoken utterances between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding written posts and pre-recorded videos, determine resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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