{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
  "slug": "when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released",
  "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "openai",
    "large-language-models",
    "product-release",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the public release date of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model. Eight Polymarket binary contracts partition the timeline into discrete weekly windows spanning prior to May 18 through June 28, 2026. Together they form a piecewise probability distribution over the release date. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against OpenAI's official announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XTXD6CYSG7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FGT5R0M9G2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xafc7f9c5137e0034cb13672cef9fde56b057b78dbdff18c8ed0b5d7e41b6b560",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 18 and May 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 18–May 24: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-25T22:17:19Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2191.888236,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-86049B19F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0FRLN1DM39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb049daa3078a12fb0e377b345eb4f1231e56005201bb7271058bb72a307c08b7",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 1–June 7: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T06:12:22Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 15287.500160000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5535665A6A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QH83Z4Y6R0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee786ee609e3a767dfc625f3b6fb73f8cf143abfff4ca2ee7caf5cbf3a93089f",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 15–June 21: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1600.8905679999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 21118.194565,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3289B2225D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KHW21XBGM3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x719a14817b23ca134ba7b4d5050026cbf6ae779bfffd20c370515453e4a8b0fe",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Not released by June 28: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 779.162047,
      "volume_total_usd": 29449.281298000024,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A9B1B549F4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1QK6L19YT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaed070c19ed16fca477e6ae341d6c870cb717ff67dc411d91db2cfa593bf0102",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Prior to May 18: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-20T01:09:30Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.014,
      "implied_probability": 0.014,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3028.066566,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CBDB9BB257",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFSL3DFYP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32e8c75fdb3e5ab65119eb51f2f575cca23435c1829da42a074afd350f5df13a",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 25–May 31: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T13:26:46Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 21919.085544,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A0A7FFFF44",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTXD6CYSG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1d37a8f4ad46d320c78b13aea1fea9e7d90ae7c1be2e1ae094868e779af1d1e0",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 8–June 14: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 747.9837620000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 37068.754888999945,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F7337A05E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YRT90WHFF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0fc751446629fdf52b5ce3f816a52d443dafe0e6dc68a4001ec14bdb38fb39d5",
      "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 22–June 28: OpenAI's public release date of the named model version, as confirmed by OpenAI's official announcement or availability on its platform, resolves by June 28, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1864.7714490000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 17680.981580000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7DC6B0354A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "llm",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QH83Z4Y6R0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KHW21XBGM3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTXD6CYSG7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YRT90WHFF4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0FRLN1DM39",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-08T06:12:22Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFSL3DFYP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T13:26:46Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FGT5R0M9G2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-25T22:17:19Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1QK6L19YT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-20T01:09:30Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}