{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
  "slug": "which-airlines-will-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31",
  "question": "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "airline-bankruptcy",
    "finance",
    "corporate-insolvency",
    "2026",
    "business-disruption"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Polymarket binary markets track whether each named U.S. carrier will file for bankruptcy by December 31, 2026. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against an official announcement from the carrier's authorized representative. All five share identical structure and resolution logic, making them comparable cross-carrier signals on sector distress. No cross-platform structural difference exists here; all markets are Polymarket binaries on the same event type.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MC0P8NH149",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZBHDXZWXP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa57eff13a700903bad0585c587e7b4957b4c82baa5bd31b6a7380a266d678b47",
      "question": "Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "JetBlue: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement by its CEO, legal representative, or authorized company spokesperson of bankruptcy filing or intent to file by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or definitive credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 23366.968868000007,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-216E278FA8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "bankruptcy",
        "jetblue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MC0P8NH149",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94a308c805ec2731f87f56345c55b3264ae0a00c6fad520e967ccbe6c11a410c",
      "question": "Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Frontier Airlines: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement by its CEO, legal representative, or authorized company spokesperson of bankruptcy filing or intent to file by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or definitive credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 33972.955574,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E18F9B1CFE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "bankruptcy",
        "frontier",
        "frontier airlines"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MWWT88MKX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe2b5144c498f40a33482f5848ca22e04a1d260d0f94dedbc842af19bfdb1cc69",
      "question": "Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Allegiant: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement by its CEO, legal representative, or authorized company spokesperson of bankruptcy filing or intent to file by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or definitive credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 31450.649380000017,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E69DC5FF31",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "allegiant",
        "bankruptcy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-11ZXXCV2S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6d308d4d9a0f73959fbba5ca1eefa6e015dc11244b62589712a930038543b931",
      "question": "Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "American Airlines: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement by its CEO, legal representative, or authorized company spokesperson of bankruptcy filing or intent to file by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or definitive credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11925.225523000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-118B193C88",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "american",
        "american airlines",
        "bankruptcy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3G8KLVRCN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2c608c3253f59fcc563081dc3bab61694973f0e3ba22701c17f9d82a96511565",
      "question": "Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alaska Airlines: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement by its CEO, legal representative, or authorized company spokesperson of bankruptcy filing or intent to file by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or definitive credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1447.8700000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 28359.292287999848,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6EF37A4860",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "alaska",
        "alaska airlines",
        "bankruptcy"
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}