{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
  "slug": "which-airlines-will-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31",
  "question": "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "airline-bankruptcy",
    "finance",
    "corporate-insolvency",
    "2026",
    "business-disruption"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Polymarket binary markets each track whether a named U.S. carrier will file for bankruptcy by December 31, 2026. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring an official airline announcement or verified filing statement. Resolution depends on each carrier's own public disclosure, not court dockets or third-party reporting. Traders can express relative credit stress across carriers by comparing implied probabilities across the five markets.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MWWT88MKX8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.024,
    "implied_probability": 0.024,
    "as_of": "2026-09-05T03:00:43.256Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZBHDXZWXP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa57eff13a700903bad0585c587e7b4957b4c82baa5bd31b6a7380a266d678b47",
      "question": "Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "JetBlue: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement of bankruptcy filing, or definitive consensus of credible reporting, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T13:00:26.411Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27172.058592999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-216E278FA8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "bankruptcy",
        "jetblue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MC0P8NH149",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94a308c805ec2731f87f56345c55b3264ae0a00c6fad520e967ccbe6c11a410c",
      "question": "Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Frontier Airlines: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement of bankruptcy filing, or definitive consensus of credible reporting, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T17:00:47.810Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34554.731131,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E18F9B1CFE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "bankruptcy",
        "frontier",
        "frontier airlines"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MWWT88MKX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe2b5144c498f40a33482f5848ca22e04a1d260d0f94dedbc842af19bfdb1cc69",
      "question": "Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Allegiant: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement of bankruptcy filing, or definitive consensus of credible reporting, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T03:00:43.256Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 37883.539379999995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E69DC5FF31",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "allegiant",
        "bankruptcy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-11ZXXCV2S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6d308d4d9a0f73959fbba5ca1eefa6e015dc11244b62589712a930038543b931",
      "question": "Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "American Airlines: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement of bankruptcy filing, or definitive consensus of credible reporting, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 20,
      "volume_total_usd": 18168.051956,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-118B193C88",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "american",
        "american airlines",
        "bankruptcy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3G8KLVRCN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2c608c3253f59fcc563081dc3bab61694973f0e3ba22701c17f9d82a96511565",
      "question": "Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alaska Airlines: The named airline's official announcement or verified statement of bankruptcy filing, or definitive consensus of credible reporting, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 32842.42844,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6EF37A4860",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "airline",
        "alaska",
        "alaska airlines",
        "bankruptcy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}