{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
  "slug": "which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
  "question": "Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazil",
    "presidential-election",
    "runoff",
    "2026",
    "candidate-qualification"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which candidates advance to Brazil's October 2026 presidential runoff. Each binary contract asks whether a named candidate clears the first-round threshold on October 4, 2026. All nine resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results. The suite prices individual qualification probabilities, allowing traders to construct implied field-clearing scenarios across the full candidate set.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-G9WLNXF997",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.976,
    "implied_probability": 0.976,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-57F6FWJ298",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe8c7c6327e4a320ef47195264543af323d8e72d2f1ce199747dedfa9caf3dca7",
      "question": "Will Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Romeu Zema: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results from the October 4, 2026 general election determine whether the named candidate finishes first or second, resolving by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-30T08:00:23.895Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1370.885883,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "romeu zema"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TT9WDKST59",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x29f48c366ed1ed067dda55ffb834b1e7e836cc955e45c9bd01e888bca4efcac7",
      "question": "Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ronaldo Caiado: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results from the October 4, 2026 general election determine whether the named candidate finishes first or second, resolving by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-30T20:00:49.947Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZLPWGJ1029",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfd2f08e2042474736bcd103d3cdd27ad03fb3a03ca201c90acfeea6bec4e6f01",
      "question": "Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Renan Santos: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results from the October 4, 2026 general election determine whether the named candidate finishes first or second, resolving by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 401.0204,
      "volume_total_usd": 25824.639247999996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "candidate",
        "presidential",
        "renan santos"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q9Q8NRD400",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd7391798f941b8fe16773f96397ef3f91a2fc36939bdd50a78776dbf93ddd280",
      "question": "Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Tarcisio de Frietas: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results from the October 4, 2026 general election determine whether the named candidate finishes first or second, resolving by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 12.45,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "tarcisio de freitas"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G9WLNXF997",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7b22caeed454d3c7dbd07b83d8255c74e1482c4f958b4ba4dd0c27b864cd47a2",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results from the October 4, 2026 general election determine whether the named candidate finishes first or second, resolving by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
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            "url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.976,
      "implied_probability": 0.976,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 328.648328,
      "volume_total_usd": 252906.01662200002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "candidate",
        "luiz cio lula",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0QD0Z0KN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x385cddb4dd6eeb4e09394901122f5ca461c5d07fe83fe3f4349ea5a877c3e6cc",
      "question": "Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court official results from the October 4, 2026 general election determine whether the named candidate finishes first or second, resolving by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
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        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.013153,
      "volume_total_usd": 16070.614158,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "candidate",
        "jair bolsonaro",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DZD70KJHX7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x42c969b601530ece32eef646b8cbd91ac66e68bdad1fd2ba426f69a2ee2c7548",
      "question": "Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
      "description": "General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nT",
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