{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
  "slug": "which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Russia enter any additional cities by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-ukraine-conflict",
    "territorial-control",
    "military-operations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These eight Polymarket binary markets track Russian territorial entry into named Ukrainian cities by December 31, 2026. Each contract resolves YES if any part of the named city appears under Russian control on Institute for the Study of War maps. All eight share identical structure, so probabilities reflect city-specific frontline proximity. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against ISW cartographic determinations.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SL6L4LQK41",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.023,
    "implied_probability": 0.023
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V5T7RMSY08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd4aa5c6bd2a179244d98ba714dba4441e4bf5f99f27a657b8d967f8f67cfe041",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sloviansk (48.853751256046095° N, 37.60508085394494° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading i",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sloviansk: The Institute for the Study of War map showing territorial control will determine if any part of the named city is shaded as captured by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sloviansk (48.853751256046095° N, 37.60508085394494° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 249.635116,
      "volume_total_usd": 37829.49175299992,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "sloviansk",
        "territorial control",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53M8RFVF00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d3395a91ab99cb40dc56cd4debc360ad167ac51137b862aa4ff1b5c28a22561",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sumy (50.92932978689303° N, 34.81107584134934° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/qjS5sPf9YgTRYDii6) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicat",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sumy: The Institute for the Study of War map showing territorial control will determine if any part of the named city is shaded as captured by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sumy (50.92932978689303° N, 34.81107584134934° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/qjS5sPf9YgTRYDii6) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 44642.990883999984,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "sumy",
        "territorial control",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LH9X69CVP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7d6db12a48e282585501f57871e6e482b9e2c41c68d1d5019bdbd2902209b69",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (48.61631417285371° N, 37.528161462381036° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Druzkhivka: The Institute for the Study of War map showing territorial control will determine if any part of the named city is shaded as captured by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (48.61631417285371° N, 37.528161462381036° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 430.868154,
      "volume_total_usd": 86380.61158999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "druzhkivka",
        "military",
        "territorial control",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-778M4H2GR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6557ff312837c0707d82bc2def893572289e012cff21a264593c6551f85d7e50",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. \n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Dopropillia: The Institute for the Study of War map showing territorial control will determine if any part of the named city is shaded as captured by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. \n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1567.1948419999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 86969.081476,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dopropillia",
        "military",
        "territorial control",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N66LT3DL31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x357ee5e692658d4dae5b7fe59bae12cef029f2ebffb5452f4d439a1934d84211",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kramatorsk (48.73714435420954° N, 37.589106045927714° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/TVY1bAwoc98W2L949) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kramatorsk: The Institute for the Study of War map showing territorial control will determine if any part of the named city is shaded as captured by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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      "question": "Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?",
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