{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
  "slug": "which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",
  "question": "Which companies will have a #1 AI model in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "tech-rankings",
    "ai-competition",
    "2026",
    "benchmark-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI developer holds the top Arena Score rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by June 30, 2026. All 11 markets are Polymarket binary contracts covering OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek, Meta, Mistral, Alibaba, Nvidia, Baidu, Z.ai, and Meituan. Multiple contracts can resolve YES if the leaderboard top position changes hands before the deadline. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with style control unchecked as the specified leaderboard filter.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-17ZX7LQ5Q0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2ZYN185QN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 670.746475,
      "volume_total_usd": 438306.5583799999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B9ED209BA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "llm",
        "models",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L8GCTY1JF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x968f57ef03b279de33218a60ccaafac50588466751dc5407a75b50bbce5b2e77",
      "question": "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "DeepSeek: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 13.07,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-2F50413680",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "models"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17ZX7LQ5Q0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x20923dc0347ba0d72fef151d71911780b54eb15efc8499692f494e1e36a279ce",
      "question": "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "xAI: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 925.13,
      "volume_total_usd": 574906.5353309995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BF0ADA5BFE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "llm",
        "models",
        "xai"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6T7VFVCH09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4f521e83894880ea9b30ad036fae461110058496eb29d1a28b9eada86df56d1b",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-06T21:11:59Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 257970.563525,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-F6B35577E9",
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      "tags": [
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        "llm",
        "models"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PGJH5T96D3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x843256b0c49a6deab845ede353cb6201ef1f371e82d1c996ef2fd9062b605d80",
      "question": "Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meta: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32.75,
      "volume_total_usd": 21067.584658,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D51B27B8F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "llm",
        "meta",
        "models"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FNXM0ZJ017",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2e19ad82a78f29bd9355d96a121488485037875a5099b733130738215985ed8e",
      "question": "Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mistral: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2.12,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "models"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJ83S791R3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1372ac98d0fda64f74ad41d5c899c70b6cb7579cf0a3e717d31b51c9d75847cf",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Arena Score section (style control unchecked) determines if the listed company's model achieves highest ranking by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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