{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
  "slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
  "question": "Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "tech-competition",
    "end-of-year-2026",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "enterprise-ai"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which company holds the top position on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at end of December 2026. Each Polymarket contract isolates a single named competitor as a binary outcome. Together, the 26 contracts form a mutually exclusive set covering the full competitive field. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the lmarena.ai leaderboard snapshot at close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HKZ7KFG7T5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.64,
    "implied_probability": 0.64
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SGNB4WRBK9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94f240d042917cabd55f0bcbcac7d4d2accd4436773bf91596f76572cac643cb",
      "question": "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 71.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 20104.130640000014,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-70C233F459",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKZ7KFG7T5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe944062b6d02b59c5f6c39cd4d35538918053c0c7e5f8d7fa0ab1d4edb9baa46",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "volume_24h_usd": 916.4025909999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 39701.060824,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-69AA991DC3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DMR4SCS939",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xccc84033ab481e4c1ed49fce3889e54a9f6c127b819a3bc17bbf2359d1e4c2bd",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1208.820908,
      "volume_total_usd": 30839.813919,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-746BE224F7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BYKPV78RJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd7a77ab87d7f22781bcb1b302601ebc857241d65cd288c30121950399017d8e",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.028,
      "implied_probability": 0.028,
      "volume_24h_usd": 103.953875,
      "volume_total_usd": 18627.923822000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6F0BF0DA95",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S9N32FP7C0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94f4991478e6da755120244efaca30a170f08945107d2fc2e6313d9f77390be4",
      "question": "Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Z.ai: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.015,
      "implied_probability": 0.015,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 20053.543724999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0B3A8723C8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-13GLDJ5605",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32c24495fa457397bd0b0be80bc7c11c9a6271cb8cee05a2bd9afaad0d7e21ec",
      "question": "Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "xAI: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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          {
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.049,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 240.53,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K1K458L1S5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x67adc22bcf8c1c7ff1a96cfa71d4221f5cc2ae6dc746989741d58bc8f3aa46f8",
      "question": "Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "DeepSeek: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-597SK14625",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x42c3ffd70998d46d4774897386fb919c77b959a4ba869a7b4259ceda3038db72",
      "question": "Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Moonshot: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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          {
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8YZJVWNZG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94863fef07e2101b8008f3994fe9fb79da69bede7f02f976d62797cf73e6d22f",
      "question": "Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mistral: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-ADB68C62F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8PXN1PD71",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b16027151939383432ca27284c5b45a87e588f3755e7502ecf5332d12f479ac",
      "question": "Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meituan: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 19451.830015999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5E7B5897C6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2XYW56QFX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x784beb8f89bcbc448a281050de26a227a258e535eee33e578ef10f25440c4731",
      "question": "Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Microsoft: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 20363.883796000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-114E692D74",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W327J6FW01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc167a7967ffbc3b1a864ffbaf11fa1c9fd6904877692a5ba25e3e7f3d01ed644",
      "question": "Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meta: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7N9CPC8T68",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x51d057952ea481efcbadf8d96afbc6781b9295e0932bcaf3380e2f58ce15d39d",
      "question": "Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FHJHPT2M39",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x7143797a3bfe16d1df11269f331b49d93ce09912c17e1a672b88b8dca72a270a",
      "question": "Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Baidu: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "question": "Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "ByteDance: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company A: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3SKSRCS073",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca430b785e3e83fb6f0bfb2aa08a4285ec0686cad43b5e222d8e70d05678beaa",
      "question": "Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HQDVZ9L0W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x435c3202ee6fd48d8ed7cc8c90bf5f1988d2c4c989e27ccc684e7ac2ede3f2d9",
      "question": "Will Company C have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company C: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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          {
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      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Z25ND1PD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x56518d07342cca5843906269b950a2e2b71513f1c6751724ff5eaed7665bcd86",
      "question": "Will Company D have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company D: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7GK1C5SMQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8bcb14d3d26654ea70da78360e6f27baf3dd113433d8fbcc7818a8ba24d9a4ae",
      "question": "Will Company E have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company E: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1F4VNPSMH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x608adc90de4683a2282eafdbb170718a4b5d7e3dce6a3ebbc9d794170a084641",
      "question": "Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company F: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6Q4CFP0N18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x216fd2f0364b1d4dd48a26165190475e36fd858edf2b57055bfcf8405c9e9d27",
      "question": "Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company G: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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          {
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      "question_id": "CMX-F074565055",
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      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJJ163Y3L9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa5b0fdf5a7f78457ab48b8ac16475dd3c5c0738c19aa267cf311f0bef6f719ef",
      "question": "Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company H: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, style control off) on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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          {
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