{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
  "slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august-20260717015626546",
  "question": "Which company will have the best AI model by the end of August?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "model-performance",
    "2026",
    "ai-rankings"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI developer holds the top position on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard as of August 31, 2026. Each Polymarket contract isolates a single named developer, making the set a mutually exclusive probability distribution across competitors. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the same Arena.ai leaderboard snapshot. The leaderboard excludes style-controlled submissions, so ranking sensitivity to Arena.ai's methodology is a key resolution caveat.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N37CN7F2J9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3RPD0LFNP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x49045ce1611f11aba24c745978474e7c603729378eb3f5882692b8cecd912327",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The company owning the model ranked first on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard (Models, no style control) on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.94,
      "implied_probability": 0.94,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5957.023447,
      "volume_total_usd": 27521.511931000023,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-938C20A573",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N37CN7F2J9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbf3950581ffa9617e7ebf94bc0429111c828beae300923154a78f0f81590e512",
      "question": "Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meta: The company owning the model ranked first on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard (Models, no style control) on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3762.7980000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 28740.42106200001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-133D7EDFDD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XWW5TXHF20",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61402d1d5b5209c7378f22533e9b9921021877045cd423bce66e8bcacd781152",
      "question": "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The company owning the model ranked first on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard (Models, no style control) on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4026.289792,
      "volume_total_usd": 20125.322279,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5732FAD391",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GYJQYVDDY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4fda68618d1580caa83979d536609a2e0c6828dffb383de3503bbbdf03e03e2d",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The company owning the model ranked first on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard (Models, no style control) on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6734.1985,
      "volume_total_usd": 22381.169446,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5941552554",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5SM384TMG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33d5b4984046b134e115f29d69aaf14f61e2592e0b4587c764eed4c1c441373d",
      "question": "Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Moonshot: The company owning the model ranked first on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard (Models, no style control) on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Overall",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2678.2991410000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 17272.161986000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EB871C3FAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZMQN62DP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62DXYW66Z6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7246eefe9f23dc6cf7fa0fcc155edcf56a8e36fa63a9fe96424d0a098ca663e",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The company owning the model ranked first on Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard (Models, no style control) on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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