{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
  "slug": "which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-july",
  "question": "Which company will have the second-best AI model by the end of July?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "tech",
    "model-rankings",
    "2026",
    "comparative-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI lab holds the second-highest ranking on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall standings as of July 31, 2026. Each Polymarket binary resolves independently per company, collectively spanning the full competitor set. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the leaderboard snapshot at 12:00 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The authoritative source is the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, a UC Berkeley-originated crowdsourced benchmark, not any platform distribution channel.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-359CVJBW96",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.984,
    "implied_probability": 0.984
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D8NNTJXLS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ddab8c22f39c4bd867e0af23070bb26631825737c15e2e59872b7f6ac7e1711",
      "question": "Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked second, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 79.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 6730.338177999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A509DF082B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-359CVJBW96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xefdb923ec576be44fa360a5cfbcb36422b67d7eb976ba963d2b97f7753295cc9",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked second, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.984,
      "implied_probability": 0.984,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.979499,
      "volume_total_usd": 14364.36093800001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4D811E88D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FQGTSNSH07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8d87f9b0cf2331b75c1a3b103dfb4afcd777a88fbe0fced3ce995deb8a5ff57",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked second, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 43.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 10951.904455999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-53FBF573CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2HTJVNMYB2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x438edbe7a8c0b2d1c125fb41c2bf3be524346b5a92de8c111a6dfe7fafd61021",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked second, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4964.703165999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C1F77D2900",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5WDQ1H6TC4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0853be5881b7b1b8d3701b484b8074fc9a6376cefa4a1852eff15cc71627bb2a",
      "question": "Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Z.ai: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked second, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3621.2903499999993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BD8748E173",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QG0G475VX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x53ec3ccdeb8d27f8e1198e4e7a4a70d8b3688e272330eb8f41d774457dc3ba3b",
      "question": "Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "xAI: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked second, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PBDQLMHC64",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XP7D3H577",
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      "question": "Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
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      "question": "Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VQ7476YFM3",
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      "question": "Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2YSBZX9215",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xaf811b0549cf373db77eb219c5ce1f6b9b643d705d2a25119b5dd74c8df3aa3c",
      "question": "Will Microsoft have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YM1G56N6B0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "question": "Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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      "question": "Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFF49QTPF8",
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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    {
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7YWJVMD714",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x59a16b72ff8951a98be32f6299b9ca73de2efcf1fa3057352080a74257b5e312",
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2SS1JQK08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F3TLDQG9B6",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RYNJYX5MZ9",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x5d859ff94e94a75a6e424ce7a435d6931ec8dc0aa3dc2dcb9a5029729ca2d99c",
      "question": "Will Company H have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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