{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
  "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-ai-agent-end-of-july-20260626204312502",
  "question": "Which company will have the best AI Agent by the end of July?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "ai-agents",
    "comparative-ranking",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI company will hold the top position on the Agent Arena Leaderboard Models tab on July 31, 2026. Each company-specific contract is a binary outcome; collectively they form an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive outcomes. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing arena.ai/leaderboard/agent at 12:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Leaderboard snapshot timing is the key caveat: rankings captured at that single moment determine resolution regardless of prior or subsequent standings.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KL6XVBLK88",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.938,
    "implied_probability": 0.938
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KL6XVBLK88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8d6fb0d86ff77f2a29b05e85b24d898ba77bff8b49118355057af18b47ddeb7e",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The Agent Arena Leaderboard \"Models\" tab at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.938,
      "implied_probability": 0.938,
      "volume_24h_usd": 230.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 23140.886156999994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-811A71CD7C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F02FKWM2W0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb08bec15e74d44ddf8e705171c380fc0e127264503007ca8a692c0d224fec2d9",
      "question": "Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The Agent Arena Leaderboard \"Models\" tab at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-5C7539FEF0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-13GWSJRNN8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6b1c8ecc38283948b79ea70f907d924d5fa28d11d679d63cb20ca015ec68fee",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The Agent Arena Leaderboard \"Models\" tab at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2103.06819,
      "volume_total_usd": 18570.389557000006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E4AB5787D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1F4P8YFHK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf0c812e0f96750d087eb2df4f0f4539ed555be7a4323e815acc496d21c8a57d1",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The Agent Arena Leaderboard \"Models\" tab at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
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          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-8B9A526C97",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XJS0LN4JQ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8b1a8562069a252b8b49894ae75e62f0b6ccd55bf20c766a9028b9f311cef20",
      "question": "Will xAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "xAI: The Agent Arena Leaderboard \"Models\" tab at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 64,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1575.2552990000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-6CCB0E3685",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJ217LD2B7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-03BQ3KSN65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5b48cb88c950e0bc3301ff65cf3516c1f40da2ec4e83e8c134c284a21e9d75ed",
      "question": "Will ByteDance have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "ByteDance: The Agent Arena Leaderboard \"Models\" tab at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 64,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 826.1129999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6EE5937917",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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