{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
  "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-ai-agent-end-of-june",
  "question": "Which company will have the best AI Agent by the end of June?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-agents",
    "tech",
    "comparative-assessment",
    "end-of-june",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks which company holds the top rank on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at June 30, 2026. Twenty-nine Polymarket binary markets each price one named competitor's probability of claiming that top position. The markets are mutually exclusive; collectively they sum to implied probability across the full competitor set. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Agent Arena Leaderboard directly as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q9XVW2CWS6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G5VD9F01Y9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x52b9fd7f9acc7be6dac5219adea4461d2ae03f64567ee460b7320eccaa4c2d79",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 61,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1081.32,
      "volume_total_usd": 5398.120026000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A44AA7824C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-39Z1B520L8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4594f6224e36d92dc169c8d5800e93a272bc47df1d05d6ef58fe1eb17cbbbe5e",
      "question": "Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Baidu: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 61,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5,
      "volume_total_usd": 902.4494999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DDB52B62F2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4YHH48X676",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ef9adfccf97e05bb0183c465b480d7d9015c51ce4600948a8700a76111e1fcc",
      "question": "Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "DeepSeek: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 61,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 236.841,
      "volume_total_usd": 1265.8823329999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5D9F7C5066",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QW5CXZL9F3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb680021a5557ffaa806978ff01a9751c3379c358072f4384936e3e48c2fd1fe",
      "question": "Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Microsoft: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
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          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 61,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 144.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 1146.2934999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-F2B0E41FC0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2KNGV2CDF7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7bdac09c7cb828f683b5393d400799ed8bdf929534aeff2d1d0abd30cdc9f346",
      "question": "Will Company B have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company B: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 61,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-58ABD6C0EE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKBHXC83C8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T5V5YXQ8H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d85f9ec7f9a16b448d3f441adb781d44cd67aa484fea87920c03ef8ef590edd",
      "question": "Will Company G have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Company G: The company owning the model ranked highest on the Agent Arena Leaderboard's Models tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under \"Agent Arena\" filtered for \"Models\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Agent Arena\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Agent Arena Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 61,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E82BFC7A39",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
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