{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
  "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-coding-ai-model-end-of-july",
  "question": "Which company will have the best Text Arena Coding AI model by the end of July?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "coding-models",
    "text-arena",
    "model-benchmark"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI developer holds the top rank in the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Coding category on July 31, 2026. Each Polymarket contract is a binary outcome on a single named developer, with the full set functioning as a mutually exclusive competitor field. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves each contract against the lmarena.ai leaderboard snapshot at close. A key caveat is that leaderboard rankings can shift rapidly near the snapshot date, and anonymous placeholder entries like Company A through E introduce resolution ambiguity if those slots map to unlisted developers.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RY6R5RLDD1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.984,
    "implied_probability": 0.984
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XP8RT8S7D6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb9245c540501c9cfcf25e856f615cebc1f3eda9371e864720cf27e2a9e09b7b",
      "question": "Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Coding\" rank column at https://lmarena.ai/ on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the company owning the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2215.8250049999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-14DDC372BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RY6R5RLDD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xefcd53d5adcc855701ac4fe902cd5c4a71ff221ef7819836912c17947f68697e",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Coding\" rank column at https://lmarena.ai/ on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the company owning the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.984,
      "implied_probability": 0.984,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.360649,
      "volume_total_usd": 10735.003177000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D188F72426",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D3FCNQYDC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe8b8b9fcbbf8f7fe85b460161f6e673d81c44e84dcad970f18c061d7953db7e0",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Coding\" rank column at https://lmarena.ai/ on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the company owning the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.86,
      "volume_total_usd": 5546.8667129999985,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D00010F75F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJZ73FQ0V1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ff685da3429f9abd33c0979285bd8086af671e3fa53a7ba3a00d6e21c87fc97",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Coding\" rank column at https://lmarena.ai/ on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the company owning the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2275.6347600000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F03C7F5F03",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQ975HMKH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb563cd8cbb291d7cdea6f5e55a3963b84e3c9684fc0902eef42d3332eeaaa2a1",
      "question": "Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Z.ai: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Coding\" rank column at https://lmarena.ai/ on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the company owning the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1761.231971,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1A1A595C89",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0QSFH7G409",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-845CZKC084",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa26a21bbde03c4037ceb615a3dda274c8ce95dbe1f0b71837eebfefddf42bcbb",
      "question": "Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "xAI: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Coding\" rank column at https://lmarena.ai/ on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the company owning the highest-ranked model.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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