{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
  "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-coding-ai-model-end-of-june",
  "question": "Which company will have the best Coding AI model by end of June?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "coding-models",
    "tech",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI developer holds the top rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. Each Polymarket leg is a binary contract on a single named company; the legs are mutually exclusive and sum to one outcome. All legs resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the same leaderboard snapshot. The authoritative source is the Chatbot Arena Coding tab ranking, operated by LMSYS, not any platform-distributed feed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3WPL2M1YN0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z3YPB1Z150",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfbc3df9ff179d9850847e04c205c421728e9bb4b7b1262e594b6bea53435fd75",
      "question": "Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab rank on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb43c0a1b57a0961bd37fd3e15c6d8ab42a3b7de5b7edef0801828cd2da46281a",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab rank on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 561.0899999999999,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZRNDC0400",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94268f4c300b7b1326fa3526f10c68411d83a02ddb00ecc139d5bb956e1eb1cd",
      "question": "Will ByteDance have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "ByteDance: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab rank on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 1843.8308329999995,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M4SFT1RXB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x56acbb508d0e0089265ce71d1b9287fca50ef63e2684f3c550bf2b84aaf477a8",
      "question": "Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
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      "underlying_reference": "Moonshot: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab rank on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 551.0699999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 5352.963498000002,
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      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XVG74327Z1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7b4b999eb8e4f5762b76d43c3cb6ce4b9a3439075bd4bbf0e282964de3e3efcb",
      "question": "Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Z.ai: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab rank on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R6YVRL73T0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2G5JBXDPS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbc93b3af11ad97ee888b4782b936f0079fdd66e0e7282b8d70cb2d22195ba29c",
      "question": "Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "DeepSeek: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding tab rank on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company's model ranks highest.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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