{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
  "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-text-arena-math-ai-model-end-of-september-20260717142058419",
  "question": "Which company will have the best Text Arena Math AI model by the end of September?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "llm-benchmarking",
    "math-reasoning",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which company holds the top rank on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard as of September 30, 2026. Each binary market prices one company's probability of claiming that rank, with style control off and model deduplication applied. The 34 markets are mutually exclusive; exactly one resolves yes. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol across all markets.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CMS1FQSVS4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JDXY3QCT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x23ac617f1ad56479b3077717fdb87a241f32b8cbc6a694fea5fe5f0aecb71663",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on ran",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The company owning the model ranked highest on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard (style control off, Models filtered) on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Math",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2649.613063,
      "volume_total_usd": 4917.912341999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BC6DAD0A2E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JZM5WS7ZQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x56f052ee01ba2ae7e4bfd7c2eea9d4c3e0252360316571e1aac60ca91adc0715",
      "question": "Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on ran",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The company owning the model ranked highest on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard (style control off, Models filtered) on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Math",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 1029.161899,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C88612996F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9DLJ2J77D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0f7b3666631d03969e5307738840a51e6811582b229ecfe1c46a5df0f06ac7a8",
      "question": "Will SpaceXAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on ran",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "SpaceXAI: The company owning the model ranked highest on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard (style control off, Models filtered) on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Math",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 389.801272,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-39E175EA8E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NT4PK2YS68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6c5a756f1fd4bb00657a30ecd49ff3ff5f9bb8cb0fe9b56bcb4f9780ba157ec4",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on ran",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The company owning the model ranked highest on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard (style control off, Models filtered) on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Math",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 427.7732,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA3DBA2F05",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CMS1FQSVS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x86e83d79e4d8b30320f6bd1540ece170231f614920f51ecfb492f3163f071ea1",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on ran",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The company owning the model ranked highest on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard (style control off, Models filtered) on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Text Arena | Math",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Math)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 25,
      "volume_total_usd": 6774.372057,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4D51AF73B7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-67GNRX0NQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BG8FT8NVP5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xad92586cb9e70b52839d57ef163958751dbebedc22c581fe72cd94e4e233dcc0",
      "question": "Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on ran",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Baidu: The company owning the model ranked highest on Arena.ai's Text Arena Math Leaderboard (style control off, Models filtered) on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET resolves the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
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