{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
  "slug": "which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-july",
  "question": "Which company will have the third best AI model at the end of July?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ai",
    "ai-rankings",
    "model-performance",
    "july-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which company holds the third-place ranking on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall standings as of July 31, 2026. Polymarket structures this as 26 binary outcome markets, one per named competitor. Each contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the leaderboard snapshot at 12:00 PM ET on the resolution date. A key caveat: LMSYS Chatbot Arena controls the ranking methodology, and any mid-period changes to scoring or model eligibility rules could affect resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GLJWCQD875",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.936,
    "implied_probability": 0.936
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3P9XRYXWV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x814ccfa62dfb7ea172c462e0486a0a329cbf096a267036d79d1844fa7d82fba8",
      "question": "Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked third, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1350.38,
      "volume_total_usd": 13544.595265999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4FC7ED7BF6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GLJWCQD875",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a22caa25515882ac95eaac1f055e86d76a0cc38d18eb01a8357ceafe29a0837",
      "question": "Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked third, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.936,
      "implied_probability": 0.936,
      "volume_24h_usd": 775.570922,
      "volume_total_usd": 42007.49152700004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FAC43E7AB4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BKSXWS12N3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x316ae3d9074cfdef83ac5ba0d2e7e686f782838a37f237d85c771c9351b06c1e",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked third, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.028,
      "implied_probability": 0.028,
      "volume_24h_usd": 28,
      "volume_total_usd": 4864.635762999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FF4CA7100",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B41C6P2QX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb26807314d6c8f9ee4c0608ea99478f303f90700058b32796a6d0df8918dbf08",
      "question": "Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked third, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4566.255003999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-25894F56DE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9M207ZK385",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1a07b445ff5805218a89645f36b88cf4e8479221222a028431b01624eeca3807",
      "question": "Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Z.ai: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked third, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 942.6759999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-614E521F8F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DVJ9FCQ9B8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HB6S9VTDG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfd6033635c7160e39e9cdc5167cb2eaccf4af9a40c1e396326a6057bae72cd8d",
      "question": "Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "xAI: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines which company owns the model ranked third, resolving the market accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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      "question": "Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LB9CRC85M4",
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      "question": "Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Aren",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBB53MWNZ1",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BLDXBRXD23",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x17080cdac1a793a9ca5f25ef1b353f298f4a38e53300d6d4843ee90f908d0b3a",
      "question": "Will Company H have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
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