{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
  "slug": "which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-control-on",
  "question": "Which company will have the top AI model at the end of June?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "tech",
    "openai",
    "google",
    "model-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks which company owns the top-ranked model on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at end of June 2026. All 19 markets are Polymarket binary contracts, each pricing a distinct competitor's probability of holding the top position. The markets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive; probabilities should sum to one. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Chatbot Arena leaderboard snapshot at the close date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PC1FL92D29",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X0D4WS4FX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa3681c6be3faf6b4f05918ed0bc9786e41e600d9882c335907b5a3402bf93494",
      "question": "Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The owning company of the model ranked highest on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1766.032913,
      "volume_total_usd": 38454.056721000015,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-44594B1F5A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9VN6ZRMYQ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8",
      "question": "Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The owning company of the model ranked highest on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2201.081309,
      "volume_total_usd": 66109.336403,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-41AFFEF396",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PC1FL92D29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x62d3940c2c5881f4f380a416f329bfd654b4d8045a74e1cdbcc2a232eb113a83",
      "question": "Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Z.ai: The owning company of the model ranked highest on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1666.907,
      "volume_total_usd": 429014.9473049997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F09C54A49",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CQ50ZF9XR1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x406636e7a09039520dd75f69339f88422e8218bcd1065af6967df8b791124e9b",
      "question": "Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "DeepSeek: The owning company of the model ranked highest on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 580.941999,
      "volume_total_usd": 214238.8717789997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B66FD8E4FC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-67JNSWCK31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6007378c9ef6278d9e2a974da50b623a61285ae77f600cb31adbe4dad52dd4a9",
      "question": "Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mistral: The owning company of the model ranked highest on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 593.429,
      "volume_total_usd": 80540.52128599999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BFD08DA657",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "which company has"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWR4JNVZB3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6f02871c2f4ba487b11c87a163e576b20144c33b8d0878b396057fb6a406b540",
      "question": "Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Microsoft: The owning company of the model ranked highest on Chatbot Arena's Text Arena Overall Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
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    {
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      "question": "Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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      "question": "Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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      "question": "Will any other company have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "question": "Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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    {
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      "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8RJDHPQGY0",
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      "question": "Will Baidu have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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