{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
  "slug": "which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026",
  "question": "Which company's AI will first achieve a score of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "ai",
    "chatbot-arena",
    "model-benchmarks",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI developer will first reach a 1550 Elo score on Chatbot Arena by December 31, 2026. Chatbot Arena, maintained by LMSYS, is the authoritative leaderboard for crowdsourced model evaluation. The 32 Polymarket legs form a mutually exclusive set; exactly one company can resolve true. All legs settle via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against observed Chatbot Arena score data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LVY2Z5T3Z8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.8
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0xff51f2c13120c22abe5781c21a2bb4dc81a8013c38b2dd472b634cad6c8ac53b",
      "question": "Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.055,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-05LZXL3FY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x66ac2e679490cd3d3b3f62661d7ce7f57ff1eadabd316e7f2372fdfeab490485",
      "question": "Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "DeepSeek: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYYRZ62ZN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66a1575e9f5f99d4ab74ebc27271808d67cc2ece06767ef58331179a6a8be42a",
      "question": "Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BPTQNFDS18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5574c0e233906ecd6dd2c9c3e309509124aa864f6f6a793e70c39b98efb0558",
      "question": "Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
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      "question": "Will Company F be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.",
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