{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026",
  "question": "Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "international-travel",
    "2026",
    "us-foreign-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Donald Trump physically enters each listed country's territory in 2026. All 26 markets share identical binary structure, each isolating one destination; collectively they function as a cross-country probability matrix for presidential travel. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing official U.S. government sources to confirm physical entry. Disputed or ambiguous travel records could trigger the UMA challenge window before final settlement on December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-62YX5P94D6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.999,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZWGPXLVHW6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc1c987ae6cf96c0c676527c8dfaee295eb7aff785a00d91ca6de37e87738b72c",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the Unit",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Pakistan: Official U.S. government sources confirm whether the named candidate physically entered the listed country's territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_citation": "https://twitter.com/POTUS",
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            "url": "https://twitter.com/POTUS",
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            "name": "official information from government of the United States of America",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:00:57.004Z",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2095JL844",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd81282f5791e3354572aa666ee1a2bdb8700e235a6d94b06a49c18c606eef1ce",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the Unit",
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      "underlying_reference": "Lebanon: Official U.S. government sources confirm whether the named candidate physically entered the listed country's territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-46M2BZ3ZR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x5c92a73f97cd55da73b95d1c05d78c6b1065eeed9dcc889f23d5537441c04ac6",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the Unit",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Venezuela: Official U.S. government sources confirm whether the named candidate physically entered the listed country's territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T06:00:40.344Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6DZH4GLVG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x368ecedd0a252546ec004b642f8c1d72a4ef2b6f1df5117247bcab51d2b51ce1",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Portugal in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the Unit",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Portugal: Official U.S. government sources confirm whether the named candidate physically entered the listed country's territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T15:00:45.206Z",
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "0x8782d89527979fd2d97ab44448a7249cdcf83cfddb0c2968216b4ad7a2d42704",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of Ameri",
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      "underlying_reference": "United Kingdom: Official U.S. government sources confirm whether the named candidate physically entered the listed country's territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-09T00:21:26Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x572971eede0909d69662fe3e09d7c6ada9065ee792b6fa14548e85d6af90ee0b",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of Ameri",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 29.65,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S83TFQZSL7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf6279279a7d6a8f5b3389ffea499313812180672d2d13ed32a8524ebd18e3b36",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026?",
      "description": "If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of Ameri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-21T15:03:06Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V0BCKV3553",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}