{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
  "question": "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-recognition",
    "international-relations",
    "diplomacy",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether 16 named states will formally recognize Israel by December 31, 2026. All 16 markets are binary outcome contracts on Polymarket, each isolating a single country. Saudi Arabia carries the highest geopolitical weight among the set. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using official government statements or credible news consensus.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RMSPSM27G3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.18,
    "implied_probability": 0.18,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQFFMPYTR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa8ab747ff99f1fa567728cd9c89c71e6f1ea87f5bd5b31ca2e881bb62d7d22ba",
      "question": "Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "North Korea: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.029,
      "implied_probability": 0.029,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 17692.161681999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "north korea",
        "recognition"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBBZHH1KV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x6613013b28666790ea5ee7f3ba96a17ad77005e1c147a9e8750818f93f56de1b",
      "question": "Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cuba: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.049,
      "implied_probability": 0.049,
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      "volume_total_usd": 8220.856012999999,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DYZLTVBQV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9f49858223675c7f9b354adccf3303956beff106a80e13ba12dd320735bf8181",
      "question": "Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Saudi Arabia: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 73.259544,
      "volume_total_usd": 49620.556708,
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5f3dabeb8d8174eff4a17c94d6396b7e5f71a2ba60a474f53dc69e6a493cbfe3",
      "question": "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lebanon: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 52,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.18,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0x7ba4447c532f6c634be6657261acb7e47ab916658f358ec13b1bcc99fdfda929",
      "question": "Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "last_price": 0.039,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "middle east",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x890cd68d875c95a83894f2a3c896b561383c76b412807e3d3e0e59b51573edf6",
      "question": "Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Iraq: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x86000180fc5c1d2f99e4e8627c2113aff3b53e952d87d803fea99f0932174ebc",
      "question": "Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Pakistan: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "pakistan",
        "recognition"
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    },
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7f3b934838774f7d3fc0e3b42767b63811d1597cd5b78ff4be7ef9c408c724a",
      "question": "Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Syria: Official government statements or credible news consensus determines if the named country formally recognizes the referenced state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11883.084206000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "iran",
        "middle east",
        "recognition"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}