{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
  "question": "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-recognition",
    "international-relations",
    "diplomacy",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether any of 16 named states will formally recognize Israel by December 31, 2026. Each market is a discrete binary on a single country, spanning ideological adversaries from Iran and North Korea to Gulf states and Southeast Asian nations. All 16 markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using official government statements or credible reporting consensus as the evidentiary standard. Resolution ambiguity is highest where state communications infrastructure is opaque or where de facto and de jure recognition may diverge.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DYZLTVBQV8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.12,
    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQFFMPYTR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa8ab747ff99f1fa567728cd9c89c71e6f1ea87f5bd5b31ca2e881bb62d7d22ba",
      "question": "Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "North Korea: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 73.67103,
      "volume_total_usd": 907.7202029999995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "israel",
        "north korea"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBBZHH1KV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6613013b28666790ea5ee7f3ba96a17ad77005e1c147a9e8750818f93f56de1b",
      "question": "Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cuba: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 837.6897540000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "cuba",
        "diplomacy",
        "israel"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RP3FBBJX15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7f3b934838774f7d3fc0e3b42767b63811d1597cd5b78ff4be7ef9c408c724a",
      "question": "Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Syria: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 296.27,
      "volume_total_usd": 4626.311524000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "israel",
        "syria"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3YH1HJVCN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee21994a29aaca4a6501e40019126a5f765621d241303ae69080c007d8593f19",
      "question": "Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bangladesh: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 5613.904604999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bangladesh",
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "israel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DYZLTVBQV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9f49858223675c7f9b354adccf3303956beff106a80e13ba12dd320735bf8181",
      "question": "Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Saudi Arabia: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 226.43749099999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 13645.113165000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "israel",
        "saudi arabia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RMSPSM27G3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5f3dabeb8d8174eff4a17c94d6396b7e5f71a2ba60a474f53dc69e6a493cbfe3",
      "question": "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lebanon: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 112.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 4343.914762999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "diplomacy",
        "israel",
        "lebanon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L7GRZWWXP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ba4447c532f6c634be6657261acb7e47ab916658f358ec13b1bcc99fdfda929",
      "question": "Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Afghanistan: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 71.276594,
      "volume_total_usd": 6873.197342000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "afghanistan",
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "israel"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G6QF4FP8V7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2e02dc37aefb1852448b111d62e9647bf2ed884239d910fa37221eaeb86b0de7",
      "question": "Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Qatar: Official government statements or credible reporting consensus on formal state recognition will determine resolution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}