{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will all countries recognize Israel by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "international-recognition",
    "israel-relations",
    "diplomacy",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These fifteen Polymarket binary markets track whether specific non-recognizing states will formally recognize Israel by June 30. Each market is independent, allowing traders to price recognition probability by country without cross-country correlation constraints. The markets span a range of geopolitical contexts, from Gulf states to ideological adversaries. Resolution requires an official government announcement or credible news consensus, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YPJJG9VZ34",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.003,
    "implied_probability": 0.003
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GK25G8NDK9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x87481d5929f101b77c7f7a0bfc899df03c9c4d3773bba061846feb68dc08e290",
      "question": "Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "North Korea: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.184737,
      "volume_total_usd": 37256.953547999896,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "north korea"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSWFC4XM26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075",
      "question": "Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Saudi Arabia: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 941.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 48724.88875800002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "saudi arabia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NHHH4FMH62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2cb2e201c613cc950599f8d440315a3125f6a3679f41f798ada974387f0a7ac5",
      "question": "Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Afghanistan: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 18676.822659,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "afghanistan",
        "country",
        "diplomacy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-05JBX3G905",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x366e277d574453c39bdded2dc4763a388b5e3b1b9c36cb3d12ce2ccd3e5925f7",
      "question": "Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Pakistan: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8791.321053999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "pakistan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NCPQDT39N3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5e6e46f7c9756170e4ba436c82079e0173541442943eadbc9732192fb5e7ee03",
      "question": "Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cuba: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32.245124,
      "volume_total_usd": 50773.753285000064,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "cuba",
        "diplomacy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RP118TGC71",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732",
      "question": "Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lebanon: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.025,
      "implied_probability": 0.025,
      "volume_24h_usd": 214.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 68865.134267,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "lebanon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-57DX4YX1J0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x344a8fae463bbcd52cba6f4f0ba388518b24115c8423f3158ae60eac98282e57",
      "question": "Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Iraq: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 26.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 35214.38148400002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "iraq"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z1V7T4H1N9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf5191450300fdcb365d50bcc82acf0e67c851d4c894b76d63fb5f8613b10f1f",
      "question": "Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Syria: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54.7837,
      "volume_total_usd": 14139.602137999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "syria"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YPJJG9VZ34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfd0c9092cd2b2059c1487de5fc2145f19702d314039a8d10df55d206d08058f1",
      "question": "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Venezuela: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 87852.92759599996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PQHKG8B5X0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfec12b13c5859c51949fefd5fc1896e3d94e808244f3d068de5350f94308ada9",
      "question": "Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Tunisia: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2676.8063009999996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "tunisia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2ZFM99PW22",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32711a62e5210aa2a770358c0d7762c26c7b39c1a169d10543675f26f1952435",
      "question": "Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bangladesh: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 99.99619999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 5188.627148,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bangladesh",
        "country",
        "diplomacy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KQZD6J1G08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3721f5c052eae0a8a5c98704cc30e723cbc30526e97b2e9ac9cf80440b4c5723",
      "question": "Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kuwait: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 2010.8743009999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "kuwait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9WGX4VXG33",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e4f06223a50d6e551ce3bfbb2ca5861b4b08a4db8f35b6ed03530cf427c8c09",
      "question": "Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Qatar: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 7192.177692999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "qatar"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZPZPLMP32",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ac4ee6cc36a676667e3e1cb807b15a09fe2ef9761703cad531fa6a49359d312",
      "question": "Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Indonesia: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 51.19,
      "volume_total_usd": 19478.517753000007,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "indonesia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WYP6QFPW73",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84872ef509e8c16de463f534bbbc8233291073c9d1a6adeebf6cb34bfe83f75e",
      "question": "Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Malaysia: Official government announcement or credible news consensus of formal state recognition by the named country between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government information",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54.88,
      "volume_total_usd": 26372.708462000013,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "malaysia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}