{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q5JL3M53G5",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027",
  "question": "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "international-recognition",
    "palestine",
    "2026",
    "diplomatic-relations",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether ten named states will formally recognize Palestine as a sovereign state before January 1, 2027. Each country is priced as a separate binary on Polymarket, allowing traders to differentiate recognition probability by political alignment and diplomatic posture. All ten resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using official government announcements or credible news consensus as the authoritative source. The per-country structure exposes cross-jurisdictional divergence, particularly between Western European states and non-European allies such as Japan, the US, and New Zealand.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MXFTRSKDJ7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.021,
    "implied_probability": 0.021
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MH9MZ76MX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q5JL3M53G5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0acc45f7c62722af4ad639a0e1b08dd324d83a1d728d20f3cdeefd39375aa7f3",
      "question": "Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "United States: Official government announcements or credible news consensus confirming formal state recognition by the named country before December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
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      "volume_total_usd": 25366.709573999993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "country",
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        "united states"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZV68SY487",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd904f952c9b101184dda166e40c76268e5bbb68286d6514999f661eb5dd6e2f5",
      "question": "Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Italy: Official government announcements or credible news consensus confirming formal state recognition by the named country before December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "underlying_reference": "The Netherlands: Official government announcements or credible news consensus confirming formal state recognition by the named country before December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 62099.060643,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q5JL3M53G5",
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      "question": "Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Japan: Official government announcements or credible news consensus confirming formal state recognition by the named country before December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc29194f3f96257d0e230310dc9ecd4258da318223174499451f8f3c29cecf9b3",
      "question": "Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "question": "Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Belgium: Official government announcements or credible news consensus confirming formal state recognition by the named country before December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "question": "Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Finland: Official government announcements or credible news consensus confirming formal state recognition by the named country before December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "description": "This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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