{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-july-31-20260701001952738",
  "question": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "naval-operations",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "middle-east",
    "2026",
    "maritime-security"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These eight Polymarket binary markets track whether each named country sends a warship through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026. Each market resolves independently; a \"yes\" requires official military confirmation or credible reporting of a transit. Markets are correlated but not identical, as allied navies often conduct coordinated or sequential operations. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with the evidentiary bar set at documented confirmation rather than announced intent.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LYQP795WG2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.02,
    "implied_probability": 0.02
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LYQP795WG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc6789a2ac662dd271d11f0d4e65fb0f323b680619de5ffd57815342aa3a6cecf",
      "question": "Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "United Kingdom: The listed country's military confirms or credible reporting documents a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "broad consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 708.501427,
      "volume_total_usd": 144654.7167539998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "strait of hormuz",
        "uk",
        "united kingdom",
        "warships"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TC5RMH9J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x60738799b14966cb7c12e67a550a21404dc473547d99e91993523f70043f64e3",
      "question": "Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "France: The listed country's military confirms or credible reporting documents a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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          {
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1948.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 102063.64031200016,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "france",
        "strait of hormuz",
        "warships"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N9C6WKNXJ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5f55fb4898ca3fae3f87c99eb5530baed89334cc413e650766526cb7c494c04c",
      "question": "Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "United States: The listed country's military confirms or credible reporting documents a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "broad consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 370.615189,
      "volume_total_usd": 64748.02317099994,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "strait of hormuz",
        "united states",
        "usa",
        "warships"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8TQ59MMFJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x06224e7bfc666eab384c84856e642063131d6b012745ce7e188f9c78336f5e07",
      "question": "Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Netherlands: The listed country's military confirms or credible reporting documents a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "broad consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 5.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 87661.79028300008,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "netherlands",
        "strait of hormuz",
        "warships"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QGXQX6H4R2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8eb7ae9d9f72486283ea541685127829528b93babb493c956662c862634267fc",
      "question": "Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Greece: The listed country's military confirms or credible reporting documents a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting",
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      "volume_total_usd": 7634.092091999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "greece",
        "strait of hormuz",
        "warships"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZYT65Y8FX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x148d91a7ca1fcb25e46f4288ebc61ec3be50f29f87b1123c2e45ab29bf7444fd",
      "question": "Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Italy: The listed country's military confirms or credible reporting documents a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",
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