{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
  "question": "Will Trump make new trade deals with specific countries before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "trade-policy",
    "trump-administration",
    "bilateral-deals",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These 17 Polymarket markets track whether the U.S. concludes a qualifying trade agreement with each named counterparty before January 1, 2027. Each market is independent, allowing traders to price bilateral deal probability separately across counterparties ranging from the EU to Taiwan. All 17 resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Resolution requires a deal to become law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive action, excluding informal frameworks or partial arrangements.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L8Y3KLYPQ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.12,
    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NYWJ7KYHR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"European Union\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "European Union: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13097.508124999993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "european union",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTQM967TJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x533aab0d99851ea6dccf14861b8b7bb5026a40a15718769f8cc519d93380b391",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"India\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "India: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 292.87768,
      "volume_total_usd": 65116.183504000095,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "india",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JGLGJMDZ21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x81e8f9fd1c08c597b716ea800a97c6d04d60c985a2c388bc6d77a0f85e643df8",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Canada\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Canada: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50,
      "volume_total_usd": 3077.2799599999985,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "canada",
        "nafta",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6Q630RSP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66cbd462cd4e08dacb506dcc0df32b8a7ccf29d1c2f039f85e36eb768026b729",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Brazil\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazil: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.106,
      "implied_probability": 0.106,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4308.033093000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "latam",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M5MYJ34TN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfe61b06cd6643f489a4781a327cdf06bfd639e95151d938c801758a4bea41b73",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Japan\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Japan: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17091.763155000008,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "japan",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RP9TSP0VD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffe86f7d81d3834d1a9f71c7d9700c62d53bc051f0fcd6efbadeb1c26c48837a",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Indonesia\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Indonesia: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19091.588030000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "indonesia",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTR1RYGN84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b23c92cb20b728bb52e34d431dd982ceb907a4ab255f7412776e8163ca89fe5",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Argentina\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Argentina: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 22186.783666999996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "latam",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5156P6ZKP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd60f9b0c5ce8c507e463731b67017dec027eea02bf4bfd3c3dccb364fc2262b7",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Vietnam\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Vietnam: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5633.929188000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "trade",
        "vietnam"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3W6XS9DFH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7531c660ca20317d50ca9dd3a3b1df7659509bb6a415ac1f026c63be5061afb3",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Australia\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Australia: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
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