{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
  "question": "Will Trump make new trade deals with specific countries before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "trump",
    "trade-deals",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These 17 Polymarket markets track whether the U.S. concludes a new trade agreement with each named counterparty before January 1, 2027. Each market resolves independently, allowing traders to price country-specific deal probability across a diverse counterparty set. Resolution requires Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive action, per Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The threshold excludes informal frameworks or interim arrangements that fall short of legally binding agreement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L8Y3KLYPQ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07,
    "as_of": "2026-10-16T12:00:49.630Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NYWJ7KYHR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"European Union\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "European Union: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.125,
      "implied_probability": 0.125,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-06T22:00:53.503Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13511.686850999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "european union",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTQM967TJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x533aab0d99851ea6dccf14861b8b7bb5026a40a15718769f8cc519d93380b391",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"India\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "India: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 78071.900001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "india",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JGLGJMDZ21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x81e8f9fd1c08c597b716ea800a97c6d04d60c985a2c388bc6d77a0f85e643df8",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Canada\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Canada: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-07T07:00:51.231Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 24981.305908000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "canada",
        "nafta",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6Q630RSP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66cbd462cd4e08dacb506dcc0df32b8a7ccf29d1c2f039f85e36eb768026b729",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Brazil\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazil: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.071,
      "implied_probability": 0.071,
      "price_as_of": "2026-10-30T11:00:47.890Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4942.321563,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "latam",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M5MYJ34TN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfe61b06cd6643f489a4781a327cdf06bfd639e95151d938c801758a4bea41b73",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Japan\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Japan: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-02T21:01:07.302Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18183.542044,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "japan",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RP9TSP0VD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffe86f7d81d3834d1a9f71c7d9700c62d53bc051f0fcd6efbadeb1c26c48837a",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Indonesia\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Indonesia: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-07T23:00:51.624Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.75,
      "volume_total_usd": 20301.170973,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "indonesia",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTR1RYGN84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b23c92cb20b728bb52e34d431dd982ceb907a4ab255f7412776e8163ca89fe5",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Argentina\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Argentina: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-06T04:00:50.018Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 23260.832717,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "latam",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5156P6ZKP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd60f9b0c5ce8c507e463731b67017dec027eea02bf4bfd3c3dccb364fc2262b7",
      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Vietnam\" before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Vietnam: A new trade agreement with the named country becomes law through Senate ratification, Presidential approval, or Congressional-Executive Agreement by December 31, 2026, per credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.098,
      "implied_probability": 0.098,
      "price_as_of": "2026-11-05T13:01:00.026Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12891.813359,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "asia",
        "trade",
        "vietnam"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": "2026-11-08T08:00:50.600Z",
      "reconciled_at": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3W6XS9DFH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"United Kingdom\" before 2027?",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}