{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
  "slug": "which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027",
  "question": "Which country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "abraham-accords",
    "middle-east",
    "diplomatic-recognition",
    "2026",
    "international-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track formal normalization agreement signings between individual countries and Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before January 1, 2027. Each binary contract isolates a single country, letting traders price accession probabilities independently across Gulf, Levant, and broader Muslim-majority states. All twelve markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official government statements or consensus credible reporting. Saudi Arabia is the most-watched candidate given its strategic weight, but each contract stands alone structurally.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KP34CFFHX5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWQJ232399",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc1bd3bfadea871e846ad2e7a09cdf56da632137a4d5e96da08b0134975ce4237",
      "question": "Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Oman: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus for credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 174470.8712400001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "diplomacy",
        "middle east",
        "oman"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN34LN3CQ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e4d65ad049ce46e0d4939ce4d00bcb95134cdbd0c1d39b6e63a4235fccae888",
      "question": "Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kuwait: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official government statements",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus for credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.07,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 56628.77969300006,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
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        "kuwait",
        "middle east"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F6GK137S27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x985b12455df199faf9ea77159bbcaa425dc5c4664fb07fd54f471ceb5d1d8e7f",
      "question": "Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Syria: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.084,
      "implied_probability": 0.084,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.19517,
      "volume_total_usd": 156943.544553,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "diplomacy",
        "middle east",
        "syria"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T3JVM84T40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd826bae66455a0b931a6bdabf81f4102c7476409d9ab55b77183e5c8db064f13",
      "question": "Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lebanon: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 108.66,
      "volume_total_usd": 72399.45941999993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "diplomacy",
        "lebanon",
        "middle east"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KP34CFFHX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x15f442103bfad36b0dcc569d9698b4d020d12a2c935b9ac9050bb190a9238ec6",
      "question": "Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Saudi Arabia: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1842.9878399999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 219187.8687349995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "diplomacy",
        "middle east",
        "saudi arabia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TJB70XGK63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0150e8238df20ad29b32b8880f5a8b096252ad55c819caf4019d85052e3d89d9",
      "question": "Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Azerbaijan: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.068,
      "implied_probability": 0.068,
      "volume_24h_usd": 34.76,
      "volume_total_usd": 162353.83920499997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "azerbaijan",
        "caucasus",
        "diplomacy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CW1GYG9F75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82ec29323ad31bab12038200ab276db8ebc596a0a8ae8a5f8db2dfb6d2cb4942",
      "question": "Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Somaliland: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 104537.79385399996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "diplomacy",
        "horn of africa",
        "somaliland"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFD33DQZ38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf164c1f623deca860ae0feb8214050f382ea1b4f77a7ab62e93e83702505c982",
      "question": "Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Qatar: Official government statements or consensus credible reporting of a formal normalization agreement signing under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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