{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
  "slug": "which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027",
  "question": "Which country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east-diplomacy",
    "abraham-accords",
    "international-relations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These twelve Polymarket binary markets each ask whether a specific country will formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel before 2027. Each market is structured identically: a discrete yes/no outcome per country, priced independently. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using official government statements or credible media consensus as the authoritative source. Traders should note that Jordan and Egypt hold existing peace treaties, making their inclusion structurally distinct from genuinely uncommitted states like Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LDW4F9WCP2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.039,
    "implied_probability": 0.039,
    "as_of": "2026-09-05T12:01:17.486Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6VTMNHWK05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91825d67bb6ab578eb5a7f5a6d34d75d4c08f0671642b24e893e7b0015d6376d",
      "question": "Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Pakistan: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T12:00:47.798Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9050.933858999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "pakistan"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFD33DQZ38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf164c1f623deca860ae0feb8214050f382ea1b4f77a7ab62e93e83702505c982",
      "question": "Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Qatar: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-26T16:00:31.476Z",
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LDW4F9WCP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6cc27a4a35f130c5481805387f567dcb79fec7284ddc4354db257f1bad86e183",
      "question": "Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Turkey: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official government statements",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T12:01:17.486Z",
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      "volume_total_usd": 487728.642911,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "turkey"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P1SRKG26J4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x428fbb628d1853643af3e2b57fab392b29d030b68d85523dfba22f22654866f0",
      "question": "Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Egypt: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.053,
      "implied_probability": 0.053,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:00:46.435Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7392.647811,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "egypt"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VR3B41F0Z0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x160a3ddb85f183f0211b03c46498ff493c780807531261137960c1257a46a79b",
      "question": "Will Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jordan: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T01:00:37.843Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9628.513779000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "country",
        "diplomacy",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWQJ232399",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc1bd3bfadea871e846ad2e7a09cdf56da632137a4d5e96da08b0134975ce4237",
      "question": "Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Oman: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 228.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 179839.554399,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN34LN3CQ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e4d65ad049ce46e0d4939ce4d00bcb95134cdbd0c1d39b6e63a4235fccae888",
      "question": "Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kuwait: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 199.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 63954.738844000014,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "country",
        "diplomacy",
        "kuwait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F6GK137S27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x985b12455df199faf9ea77159bbcaa425dc5c4664fb07fd54f471ceb5d1d8e7f",
      "question": "Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Syria: Official government statements or credible media consensus on whether the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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