{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
  "slug": "which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114",
  "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by a specific month?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "shipping-logistics",
    "supply-chain",
    "monthly-resolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the month in which Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic returns to normal levels. Each binary contract covers a discrete calendar month from July through December 2026, plus a residual contract for no normalization in 2026. The structure is mutually exclusive: only one monthly outcome or the residual can resolve affirmatively. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with no named authoritative data publisher specified across the contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y07GY4RTZ1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.5,
    "implied_probability": 0.5
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MQ5CJG3WX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbcb940386109d0c3918c53f4216621e349928655c7b25e06d2f641ca07b5b427",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2103.965464,
      "volume_total_usd": 18391.59185,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y293NS4NM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce407ea0e9cf6b1ec7bda7e2f531ae34a9abcebfe0dc17d46daf250b1f674608",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1216.310222,
      "volume_total_usd": 7624.535896,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DPWM25SRW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22748a45347c1a7003d47dfd10325fb4c2d30c2dcad14406ec9f56942bbfaf4e",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 906.0460319999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 6639.672146999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XV2424MHK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a1736e27520f22f9b040bb31b30a1447cfcce75e4f98c6a121f8ddcd90726a5",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1210.210981,
      "volume_total_usd": 4996.868992999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-15DPMMD1Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3daf6a1c13e84c30f314797cb2e26cbc29d83454a1209f6a4d8ba23082f0e345",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-11-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1106.751416,
      "volume_total_usd": 5408.095002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HRT0S8F198",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x38cadb1720be96fd7fc942ebfbfdbb892464bc27ecd6e280d3a315a2e1892263",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2217.485284,
      "volume_total_usd": 11147.501401000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y07GY4RTZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x990d1d3e4d9b120eafce967dc06753b79aa0a6c6f4a92b528fb31fbb7bdb99be",
      "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. \n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThe qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. \n\nIf data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF PortWatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1378.2090180000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 63882.18794499997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz traffic",
        "strait of hormuz"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K656M0C8P3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}