{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
  "slug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
  "question": "Which party will win the House in the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "us-house",
    "2025-midterms",
    "party-control"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. Polymarket structures the event as a mutually exclusive binary set: one contract per party, resolved against House composition determined November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election. All nine contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the official House composition record. Note that the representative market close and resolve dates are both July 11, 2025, well ahead of the November 2026 election.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WBW87W4RQ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.85,
    "implied_probability": 0.85
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1WS301K0P4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc2f2e988a909add725da525f4056ffdcfd64e951427199ac176967cc18f98edb",
      "question": "Will another party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "house",
        "other party",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBW87W4RQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd5d9fc47718bd553592d126b1fa5e87183d27f3936975b0c04cc0f2dec1f1bb4",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democratic Party: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3808.3116539999996,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DPDSGY0YF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e4f77e7dbf4cab666e9a1943674d7ae66348e862df03ea6f44b11eb95731928",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican Party: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14715.457497,
      "volume_total_usd": 3902360.2630079417,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
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        "us-politics"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S3Y134JKM6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa06d946799f30a8cf93ad5c2b9af6072ecac4ee5c9991c77490a7fc20ae7cc5c",
      "question": "Will Party A control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party A: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "party",
        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8LSG8S4Y8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xad6bb73233357873983ffa565b5be5206e8debead67cc9e23af5fbd7c8409060",
      "question": "Will Party B control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party B: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "party",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWFWM1LJY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3f85f441f4606b4b1daaef0529b85989f4d07e18f2396bda2cc36124e2bb28d7",
      "question": "Will Party C control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party C: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "house",
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        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7X4SHDQ440",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7e21279710b84fe0d4319ffd965878fc4208561221866f2f451a8fc50e7a6290",
      "question": "Will Party D control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party D: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "house",
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        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JL59S34HN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x242c2791f1ec41121f7cb44ef421688cb80b4a93753205129fecb567f6487265",
      "question": "Will Party E control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speak",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party E: The U.S. House of Representatives composition as determined on November 3, 2026, or upon Speaker election if control remains ambiguous, resolves to the party holding a majority of voting seats.",
      "close_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-07-11T00:00:00Z",
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