{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "congress",
    "us-senate",
    "2026-midterms",
    "party-control"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which party will control the U.S. Senate following the November 2026 midterm elections. Resolution hinges on the party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader. All nine contracts are binary outcome markets on Polymarket, structured as exhaustive mutually exclusive options. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle at the November 3, 2026 close.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DPD27ZP2F0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.43,
    "implied_probability": 0.43
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DPD27ZP2F0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democratic Party: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 752.1885020000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 1820676.4117530112,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026 midterms",
        "democratic party",
        "senate",
        "us politics",
        "us senate control"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W6C5R7Q3F7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x86bfb53af7250a40928975c551d12c185b762fa4ce0b40c6a64a50c946d72587",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican Party: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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        "republican party",
        "senate",
        "us politics",
        "us senate control"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PNHRCHXY35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x75e8380ff28ca9f077a37235d149f782bd859060e4c9e5c4d43742633e9dfcf2",
      "question": "Will Party A control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party A: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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        "us senate control"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KN1YH6XT89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ede7e291acb0c557bc00fdf3076de3939bddf3245b7444aa0a72874b7c80871",
      "question": "Will Party B control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party B: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "party b",
        "senate",
        "us politics",
        "us senate control"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2R28DFQQ37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5e5c207df9256248e8f0c2a6c4fe767e3ecc8f04d1bedfc41606dd5732c44f32",
      "question": "Will Party C control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party C: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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        "party c",
        "senate",
        "us politics",
        "us senate control"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C5RV4XM523",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8cb80ba706463194218b14ec9402d2fde98986ee15a33843479767ab8a17afb8",
      "question": "Will Party D control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party D: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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        "senate",
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        "us senate control"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x86567e2750273cc3cad8614545980b697263b93f860bbfa44e762974dae9a21e",
      "question": "Will Party E control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party E: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "tags": [
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        "party e",
        "senate",
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        "us senate control"
      ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K2Y0J9JYP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa797f7270ea01c88112be7a9f5698fe290972f96110fdebd827d569e574257ee",
      "question": "Will Party F control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Party F: The party affiliation of the elected Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate elections determines control, per UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
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