{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
  "slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
  "question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "administration-turnover",
    "us-government",
    "personnel-changes",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether 20 named Trump administration officials depart before January 1, 2027. Each market is a standalone binary on a single individual, collectively forming a cabinet-attrition monitor. All 20 markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which determines departure based on announced exit or cessation of formal membership. Departure definition at the individual contract level is the key resolution caveat.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H1W2HC3PH0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.999,
    "implied_probability": 0.999
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-89T2PH01B1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa8ce9e92890d683bee3fb877f69b88fde9fe6665fdd4e078f84f7c91fdf390be",
      "question": "Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Susie Wiles: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.89,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T2WKDKR5G2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x133cb0cae12996144dd3ceed5c5524c38e2493bf2c2f412cec16ea9e4dc86cd1",
      "question": "Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Dan Scavino: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D5GSWR3FG5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x41e7c27975bd53fe08a5ab30960934bfea92b60b88f56ee9d9b42b8b0c97d98d",
      "question": "Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "David Sacks: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.358,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 31.71,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DMRYPLNK54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa2df577205d2ce04af348ef5d5174259c5990d20784e1a063992c1f155b2ec27",
      "question": "Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Russell Vought: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.2,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-711P5VJTH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaaf71e9c0dd6115c5e981eb0d3c7a9136d3f527402fde1561441fa9e392d1127",
      "question": "Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Tom Homan: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G9MKNDYSN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc3bbe4f2c5da7562443c176bb95590a33ae534111d6f1682e35aafa4add68213",
      "question": "Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "John Ratcliffe: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6545FR44T9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8e2c840905e4089910b2797984e2331e23be0b0071ddcb67c466a120faf05b60",
      "question": "Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Stephen Miller: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 82.39,
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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