{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
  "slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
  "question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "administration-turnover",
    "us-government",
    "personnel-changes",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether named Trump administration officials will depart before January 1, 2027. Each binary contract isolates one individual, allowing traders to price departure risk independently across the cabinet and senior staff. All 21 markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which determines departure based on announced or formal separation from the administration. Correlated exits, such as a cabinet reshuffle, would affect multiple contracts simultaneously.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H1W2HC3PH0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.999,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Markwayne Mullin: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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      "last_price": 0.17,
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      "question": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x1960b144c14900701330156dfc592272d97e42084ccc28ad4c653bf8c1f2bcb6",
      "question": "Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
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      "underlying_reference": "Karoline Leavitt: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-13T21:00:39.486Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S6PPC700R3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xeae757a623cf6a8e4d63ab5ebca6739519f87f3506accbfdd75ae514a72bf461",
      "question": "Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
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      "underlying_reference": "Pete Hegseth: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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      "last_price": 0.21,
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      "platform_market_id": "0x48a3e95c0bc1b9305e56445a7affcb857fd61e0ae0d78a4778310a1108ceb08a",
      "question": "Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
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      "underlying_reference": "Marco Rubio: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DQQ3KW2TF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe51901c28b674d46cca978bb16790dbb42e291c31ce2acc8faa7bb16960c8eda",
      "question": "Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
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      "underlying_reference": "Scott Bessent: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x4f0f481c30d93d0c7c5ffb8a9b69d9690a4da240b0069562af20e08b6ef8dd64",
      "question": "Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a",
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      "underlying_reference": "Tulsi Gabbard: UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the named individual announces departure from or ceases formal membership in the Trump administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-22T22:30:18Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.",
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