{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
  "slug": "who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373",
  "question": "Will the United States and Iran sign a deal?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "iran-nuclear-deal",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which individual will sign a written U.S.-Iran bilateral agreement by July 31, 2026. All 20 contracts are structured identically as named-signatory binaries, spanning U.S. principals, Iranian officials, and regional third-party leaders. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against a strict criterion: a written bilateral agreement must bear that individual's signature. The inclusion of non-party heads of state, such as Netanyahu and bin Salman, implies markets are pricing potential witness or guarantor roles alongside direct signatories.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B75QK9PC46",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.013,
    "implied_probability": 0.013
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFGFPLQLH6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf400891222eb9cd2ce99e4d212a9f54d87a52a7b8c1d5d3b880d8185cd56687f",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T17:44:57Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 130052.74363000006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NCXQWZCD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3317da646f20b7f759245cce958672ec6cd89f48487217bff82e634058d13b35",
      "question": "Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "JD Vance: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T17:42:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 101996.71707099996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X9P2VN54W2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x654ecf1f582c46cd3d1df3bf0e62b20cfe958244bdbc8446c46683f07df6040a",
      "question": "Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Marco Rubio: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4520.89294,
      "volume_total_usd": 144611.41741399997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8LWHPCYCT5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5a012cc2e9f12394b27b670ab21205f11178d704978a21e3b0e48d9356976546",
      "question": "Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Pete Hegseth: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.470571,
      "volume_total_usd": 63322.02352399996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-062F2L9YY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x42262c2c4226f762eeee2b435dade8407772d2a7548436390f81f7f9ed48ccf8",
      "question": "Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Steve Witkoff: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1110.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 190921.23204099986,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NR2SJGW39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x60be3b306991820cf1e91a966519c15040f1121d1d2aca575a099fb7df4a19b4",
      "question": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Masoud Pezeshkian: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-18T05:13:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 81383.61666599993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DYZ6GFSQP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x555443f34b29be9207c40aaef440de7964ed8fa706a95c076f4fc965ac1820bc",
      "question": "Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Abbas Araghchi: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": 485.061818,
      "volume_total_usd": 163849.9010319987,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4GCPJXTB65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe42fb98610d4137712128129cea27308478510fbfb552a3c3a34b3f241292353",
      "question": "Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mojtaba Khamenei: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 239.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 114654.56437200002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFCZH9XZ76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdc2e2b3ef32a2a0c92d147c42c21cf60fdf8ad2118bfab388ccee5d140922d85",
      "question": "Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ali Larijani: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T17:48:57Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 15509.001305,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K18MDR5T55",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfda39f53af27c1bc9848abde483fdb98969d1dfc285bc6a2fe5d56e9c1c677cb",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Benjamin Netanyahu: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 155.682625,
      "volume_total_usd": 85699.76641100002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P69PFH6CN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5293370940832d9e4cb63684e3ec9f47559b01cb6efb183937f5832d86912dc2",
      "question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mohammed bin Salman: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 175163.9340260001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9MW8NBH98",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x68212bf4f50718fdacafa5b785a24588ddcd97f5b9711236034cb7812defd5a0",
      "question": "Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 34.489666,
      "volume_total_usd": 36001.908670999976,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2980H7VQT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x09508d57e81543629e170ccd145e0da1d1c1fa68817914336c0dff4e1993d230",
      "question": "Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 125771.13886499996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X2XT3Z18F8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1dbde7f27335097e1abd3ecdf273835d6641e7f5eec82decb561cddab5313701",
      "question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Recep Tayyip Erdogan: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 16064.275556000017,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-894793HY37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x976dc747774438c03e437d8f357433097eae1b932672983ba6f2a9aea79fe560",
      "question": "Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shehbaz Sharif: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-18T11:56:34Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.995,
      "implied_probability": 0.995,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 114796.87689700001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GGPGVCJP85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9de6ee108d21f1cd9633b141b79a83ba7e1246abb44d4b0978f3d43a5b56280f",
      "question": "Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 27901.657848999967,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NW37YPVY91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1b0ef6a7dd0725f44b6d3de662f291ae28564ff65a0f97c5ff83521eb41403fc",
      "question": "Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 142779.4400719999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z6HVJWPZ67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf569baa522581b7720ec93deeb9da9ec7a5928d4355b266a1f651c0a5af85b54",
      "question": "Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "King Abdullah II: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 29933.380312000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PMBTLDHK96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66314eca243a88bf0c608a9da4a6ec4be1b7f9da5840ca59ee09356b1dcf2a6b",
      "question": "Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdel Fattah el-Sisi: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 52.63,
      "volume_total_usd": 12173.628027999986,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B75QK9PC46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9238690bc7157a8a6788205fb13690ad8bcd9ec598ff7f79cbc04f7ad6d9c828",
      "question": "Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: The listed individual must sign a written bilateral agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2296.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 211425.33928499842,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "who sign iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-894793HY37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-18T11:56:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NR2SJGW39",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-18T05:13:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFCZH9XZ76",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T17:48:57Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFGFPLQLH6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T17:44:57Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NCXQWZCD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T17:42:43Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-QZ395TYLP2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}