{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
  "slug": "who-will-trump-endorse",
  "question": "Will Trump endorse a candidate for president by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "2026-election",
    "endorsement",
    "us-senate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Donald Trump will formally endorse specific candidates in contested 2026 Senate and gubernatorial races. Each market is binary and candidate-specific, pricing the probability of endorsement for one named individual. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring either an official Trump announcement or credible reporting consensus. Resolution across all markets is set for November 4, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8ZTRHPRBX3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.016,
    "implied_probability": 0.016,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8ZTRHPRBX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2aaffb7c88af0204f5095581dc72f82886f4e13902fe5c7727fac6ed48a25f11",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "John Cornyn - TX-Sen: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 144611.780097,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cornyn",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement john"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HVL04XKRH6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6fb1af1cc7caa3b4479fa9a22ba149499795e99f39f807a5272cdbf89acba3b6",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton - TX-Sen: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 64936.904429999995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "paxton",
        "senate",
        "texas",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement ken"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9559DBRZK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa0a09621f21f3d8ed7c88913f781a6e6a923dc4ad56cf7c80e1b900b058d5d56",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Andy Barr - KY-Sen: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 24073.525782,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "barr",
        "kentucky",
        "senate",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement andy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-608D4234H4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x56cae79028993e8baa2a96e3d0f3663f6f14b43096da297f10b6af2486695fcf",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse Winsome Earle-Sears for VA-Gov by Nov 2 2025 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Winsome Earle-Sears - VA-Gov: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2372.175499,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2025",
        "earle-sears",
        "governor",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement winsome",
        "virginia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPXHD292P6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x488bfc4c30005c11e46cac68f9b0535327589620a0f430bcb46de1f2e921e27a",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Steve Hilton - CA-Gov: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2160.224442,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "california",
        "governor",
        "hilton",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement steve"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-83V95PST56",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x07ab4a3d146dad453f0c195ab0760a50c8a3a841f6a45b2f8a457379d1c66a7b",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Susan Collins - ME-Sen: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1587.465481,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "collins",
        "maine",
        "senate",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement susan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-118XBP54P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HRDT88BKQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe357256420a4d64bb5aabf142b6dd61916bb31d1d0b5fb383f440bc80ce8448f",
      "question": "Will Trump endorse Lindsey Graham for SC-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lindsey Graham - SC-Sen: Donald Trump's official announcement or credible reporting consensus of his endorsement for the named candidate, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by November 4, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7547.489365,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "graham",
        "senate",
        "south carolina",
        "trump",
        "trump endorsement lindsey"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-83V95PST56",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-13T06:27:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HVL04XKRH6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-19T19:13:37Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9559DBRZK0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-02T13:50:36Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
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