{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
  "slug": "who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027",
  "question": "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "presidential-pardons",
    "us-justice-system",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These 28 Polymarket binary markets each ask whether Trump will grant a presidential pardon to a named individual before December 31, 2026. Each market is independent, pricing a yes/no outcome for a distinct subject rather than a ranked or continuous pardon probability. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official U.S. government records or credible news consensus. Preemptive pardons, commutations, and conditional grants may each raise distinct resolution questions under that standard.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-41B9L0VT25",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.047,
    "implied_probability": 0.047
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B5H9M66L75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a6bda309e606c979d6f226c6abe2d703addfdd289be08e46f371b942765ce06",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Andrew Tate: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 201.87,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "who trump pardon"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-41B9L0VT25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sam Bankman-Fried: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "volume_24h_usd": 343.99,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X4T5XHHQ13",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x30efbe1580dacf2bf87a89bdb1015e3f3398f8bc7e4453210e83bbdbb0f621b9",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Eric Adams: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 655.978376,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "who trump pardon"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VZ2PDB0WM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4a869db910b4f8e3dc8e4b562889939b2ad272c8cef5914eadeb12fb6b979ad2",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Steve Bannon: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.132,
      "implied_probability": 0.132,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7798.525978,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VFFMHPG450",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5052bf717633331a67703cec30c3506216a77176cd5d032dcffb04034f18d48",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Roger Ver: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.67999999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 1053.5635980000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VDB5103QF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x507746b101b9b031567da9c5cb1bf714dac808299708020fc91a9fa6a6032978",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Julian Assange: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.061,
      "implied_probability": 0.061,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2271.9164549999987,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "who trump pardon"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LH0K3846X9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6bc658b5fdfded234356308d971d7b93e2e92c48eff32144bc163b4a3da7277b",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Himself: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.063,
      "implied_probability": 0.063,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.503014,
      "volume_total_usd": 11947.943723999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "who trump pardon"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K82T062LW5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe16cd141288e4f14414608210a92225704d5d0a90ef79fd732b83af5c47623e4",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Diddy: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 24005.13065900001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "who trump pardon"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NG3S79SDZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6K4GN04N8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Elon Musk: Official US government records or credible news consensus confirms whether the named individual received a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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