{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPXZBC4MN7",
  "slug": "who-will-trump-talk-to",
  "question": "Will the KRG declare independence from Iraq by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iraqi-politics",
    "kurdish-independence",
    "middle-east",
    "sovereignty-declaration",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the Kurdistan Regional Government formally declares independence from Iraq before December 31, 2026. A qualifying declaration requires an official statement from KRG leadership, its ruling coalition, or a senior executive official. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol. No cross-platform comparison is available; only one market is listed under this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RRK5LT48W0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.047,
    "implied_probability": 0.047
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RRK5LT48W0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPXZBC4MN7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x19e4c19193bb06609b83267b5d06fbd4c45d8848ff532a66ace9e8e77e3c991d",
      "question": "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.\n\nA declaration must include a clear public statement by th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A formal public declaration by the Kurdistan Regional Government or its ruling party/coalition/executive official of an independent state separate from Iraq with asserted governing authority over specified territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.\n\nA declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.\n\nThe claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "volume_24h_usd": 360.64132699999993,
      "volume_total_usd": 139650.28703100013,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "independence",
        "iraq",
        "krg",
        "kurdistan",
        "kurdistan regional government"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SPXZBC4MN7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}