{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
  "slug": "who-will-visit-ukraine-by-december-31-20260729205841876",
  "question": "Will someone visit Ukraine by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine",
    "diplomatic-visits",
    "2026",
    "european-leadership",
    "conflict-zone-travel"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These fifteen Polymarket markets each price the binary probability of a named individual physically entering Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026. Subjects span NATO leadership, EU institutions, U.S. envoys, and heads of government. All fifteen resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using credible news confirmation of physical entry. Air-transit-only visits without terrestrial crossing would not satisfy resolution criteria.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0PD450BX11",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4FMQMDLLN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x034c380e3e3537e3c5ed01b4b46fda90cd3bdb4a237d90889bdfc49e2eb59cfb",
      "question": "Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ursula von der Leyen: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 26,
      "volume_total_usd": 2072.28294,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "politician",
        "ursula von der"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T8KV63XLS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x86998659aaf92acf979a93ffa20cbba3e1deb773ae675100c7505a2ecf56cdfa",
      "question": "Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mark Rutte: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 215.97126500000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mark rutte",
        "netherlands",
        "politician"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q6Q91XVM03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84c1bcd1226c6ab7098f8a79acc442f26c79f66cbe2706bd272996c3a186c9bd",
      "question": "Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "António Costa: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3064.550552999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ant nio costa",
        "politician",
        "portugal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZWGW9HBG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdcf959c1b7a7bae9b100729f6e2893e338c2f53d0e30fef4b2f60e6367fda97c",
      "question": "Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Tusk: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.69,
      "implied_probability": 0.69,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11.11111,
      "volume_total_usd": 171.601072,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "donald tusk",
        "poland",
        "politician"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1PHV79GFK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9198830408ba84e4fd866946081aba5e51a28819b181cc380e9b7b59af9273ee",
      "question": "Will Maia Sandu visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Maia Sandu: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50,
      "volume_total_usd": 1456.8701199999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "maia sandu",
        "moldova",
        "politician"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FP3CG91J19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6b1d2dc2fd282bbb4c44959bd3d80ad2038dddfb3ce4390fe3373a9970313e20",
      "question": "Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Steve Witkoff: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2059.499701,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomat",
        "steve witkoff",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RYNV5TG0X0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x24e3c4f1807ab27d9bf76d2d3c40683475b7b98d14b39a3769a7b5b2d1b6fcee",
      "question": "Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jared Kushner: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1790.9429169999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "jared kushner",
        "politician",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TLVW1ZPKF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ee953b41245fa1a16964b6a26ed728a4ad2ac17edab581fd24f3a19c61407ac",
      "question": "Will Keith Kellogg visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Keith Kellogg: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1727.9556269999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomat",
        "keith kellogg",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BT1HPJNCL7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b317bd2c2b9936b61fb770f075e522258151acb423084d10e273c35cc8fd8c2",
      "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Emmanuel Macron: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 230.85000000000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "emmanuel macron",
        "france",
        "politician"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-40C5L5HY07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc0a0bf8490c3a6b7d585aead6d5882916181e4ec276ad06d476bca8071bb877f",
      "question": "Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Friedrich Merz: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 758.9599999999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "friedrich merz",
        "germany",
        "politician"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Q9HBDWYR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc35a02e464f9612572bd1f8857431462eaef454df1ff6c60bfed6744b9b79936",
      "question": "Will Andy Burnham visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Andy Burnham: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2772.067245,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "andy burnham",
        "politician",
        "uk"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2DWC0L8MT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf129a43da0610003ad826687cdbfa974f77c4052adf7201f4c4cedd7112afe73",
      "question": "Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mark Carney: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2283.5797020000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economist",
        "mark carney",
        "uk"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWVX8NTV81",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3fbb7ee38fa68476ba90e5d33c3951b53790481731c8276c221fde5888fa1ef8",
      "question": "Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "António Guterres: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1802.6287320000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ant nio guterres",
        "diplomat",
        "un"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-16YVHV7CM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x71fa0bc02cef89c5ba8d003a21786f0b2662e99a0e64cec93b9eadc0e4f54a78",
      "question": "Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "JD Vance: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.045,
      "implied_probability": 0.045,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 51754.85111,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "jd vance",
        "politician",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0PD450BX11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2955f6f6f754108bde41fce0af77b40c17eb7a153a8aeee18fc0c62d6adc9ffe",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: Credible news reporting will confirm whether the named individual physically entered Ukraine's terrestrial or maritime territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 63343.827378,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "donald trump",
        "politician",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-7SM9QT4QX0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}