{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
  "slug": "wi-07-democratic-primary-winner-20260716190228644",
  "question": "Will the Democratic Primary winner in Wisconsin's 7th congressional district be determined by August 11, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "us-midterms-2026",
    "wisconsin",
    "democratic-primary",
    "nomination"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the August 2026 Democratic primary for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district. Polymarket structures the race as parallel binary contracts, one per named candidate plus residual buckets for unlisted entrants. All seven contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official party certification. The named candidates are Chris Armstrong, Fred Clark, and Ginger Murray; probabilities across all contracts must sum to one.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JTKQBNWNR0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.954,
    "implied_probability": 0.954
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XPP6DY7453",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf8ae1e3652561ce6760c2ac065557cc364cea9684e7b6e41938cff82597fff6",
      "question": "Will Chris Armstrong be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Chris Armstrong: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": 294,
      "volume_total_usd": 2037.653969,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chris armstrong",
        "democratic",
        "primary",
        "wi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JTKQBNWNR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xde64ee255bb862eb38ad6f6b1513b7319be4ed64f8f51b918df70fb7aabafe62",
      "question": "Will Fred Clark be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fred Clark: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.954,
      "implied_probability": 0.954,
      "volume_24h_usd": 155,
      "volume_total_usd": 16892.917373000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "wi-07"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S2BWPKTZT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x98f9f3460014d6c2f356faa2be0f1a101eaf0f6f6edbb960032df9c42056487f",
      "question": "Will Ginger Murray be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ginger Murray: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 392.04,
      "volume_total_usd": 2994.814706,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "ginger murray",
        "primary",
        "wi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SNLTW9YYP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaf3ac0898995f9705261044c64f05f04d81a6d50bc12e2f57dcdeee1cf4fc6b8",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic",
        "primary",
        "wi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-646GMBVD30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2df3331db4e44d4d39600e86e848698c88d43b69726be7aa6e5955dc9e03fcf9",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic",
        "primary",
        "wi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GRQZCPZ3Y3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x62b9153771a805aae6f013c3adadf9f076fc97c699af3e88abd54a8c44da4636",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic",
        "primary",
        "wi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CTF6Y8JYD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x990461d25ec1bd8b7c968466cf0c5aa10764288c88553f8a68c790ce5c266617",
      "question": "Will another candidate be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The Democratic Party nominee for the WI-07 congressional district, determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic",
        "other candidate",
        "primary",
        "wi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SNLTW9YYP2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-646GMBVD30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GRQZCPZ3Y3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CTF6Y8JYD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3SB30R28H8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}