{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
  "slug": "will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-model-performance",
    "china-tech-competition",
    "llm-leadership",
    "international-ai-race",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a Chinese-developed AI model will hold the top position on Chatbot Arena's \"Text Arena | Overall\" leaderboard by December 31, 2026. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the LMArena leaderboard as the authoritative source. Ambiguity may arise if rankings shift near the resolution date or if multiple models tie.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FSSPQHDW97",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FSSPQHDW97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca52ff40e910f20d6af4ae3b475f6fa00c4a31205d732cfb2c2e1d09dff21932",
      "question": "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, Ste",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Text Arena | Overall\" Score column at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines which company owns the highest-ranked model as of December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 571.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 60193.52464000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-25CD317E17",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "china",
        "chinese ai company",
        "llm",
        "technology"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}