{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
  "slug": "will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will a Chinese company have a top AI model in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-models",
    "chinese-tech",
    "ai-rankings",
    "2026",
    "global-competition"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Chinese-developed AI models will place in the top 1, 3, 5, or 10 positions on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. All four markets are Polymarket binary contracts structured as nested rank thresholds, where higher-tier markets imply the lower-tier ones. The structural insight is that each contract prices a different rank cutoff, not outcome direction, creating a probability term structure across competitive placement. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall ranking at arena.ai.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FSSPQHDW97",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T04:00:34.562Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SPWPZW63R2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf4aff06686ee874668335fe94999e249fdf4de02a031afc9ee791a911b0e8717",
      "question": "Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meitua",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "#3: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall ranking at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control resolves this market by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with style control off.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 397.371536,
      "volume_total_usd": 41014.72857299999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-680F32942E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "china",
        "chinese company ai",
        "llm",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4RLT1WJS97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2c185587bad5fe008a477755ed1dfbbb9f5828e84596aa9c6d9f60ebe6bc705d",
      "question": "Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 5, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meitua",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "#5: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall ranking at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control resolves this market by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with style control off.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T07:42:56Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 5, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top five positions under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.998,
      "implied_probability": 0.998,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 49240.41879,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C7F2713A00",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "china",
        "chinese company ai",
        "llm",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P1MDZLL6H0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22637d3841428fd3efcf8cdff418ab97663676f1c6e634c32740ee390ca19d89",
      "question": "Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 10, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meitu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "#10: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall ranking at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control resolves this market by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with style control off.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-03T07:43:56Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 10, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top ten positions under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
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          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 50050.35867999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-109B54E290",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "china",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FSSPQHDW97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca52ff40e910f20d6af4ae3b475f6fa00c4a31205d732cfb2c2e1d09dff21932",
      "question": "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "#1: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena Overall ranking at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control resolves this market by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with style control off.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nChinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T04:00:34.562Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 95061.67863099999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "question_id": "CMX-25CD317E17",
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      "tags": [
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        "llm",
        "ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P1MDZLL6H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-03T07:43:56Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4RLT1WJS97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-03T07:42:56Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-PBQ8F0L0K9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}