{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
  "slug": "will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top",
  "question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto-prices",
    "crypto",
    "ranking",
    "altcoins-new",
    "market-cap",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any cryptocurrency launched in 2026 ranks within tiered market cap thresholds at year-end. All four are Polymarket binary questions structured as nested strikes: top 5, top 10, top 20, and top 50, each a discrete inclusion threshold. A yes on top 5 implies yes on all looser tiers, creating an implicit probability ladder across the four contracts. Resolution uses CoinGecko's market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1WMPR0G375",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQFN2635T0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x506f2194859dc087893b8f7af67b18dd174d20cc7a6e97be6008a070514bd519",
      "question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50: CoinGecko's market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determine if any coin launched in 2026 ranks in the top 10, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3067.851125,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6388ACD4E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "market cap ranking",
        "newly launched cryptocurrency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q83GC857R1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6ad0a71d7219e069c70ac05491a47b905c420a7854898b200cd20d5a9965f94",
      "question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20: CoinGecko's market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determine if any coin launched in 2026 ranks in the top 10, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4883.6433210000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-BBE4B972EB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "market cap ranking",
        "newly launched cryptocurrency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1WMPR0G375",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45194a41a96fc3c01131698af127a03285e40a99ad4db51d0d9a6d31806e145b",
      "question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determine if any coin launched in 2026 ranks in the top 10, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10678.043426,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-8804BC65A1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "market cap ranking",
        "newly launched cryptocurrency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PQ9TV0KT94",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x953a75f48654125b8a5cbc39944a7e587c78fe58db9d923e1cb18d130a69aedb",
      "question": "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5: CoinGecko's market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determine if any coin launched in 2026 ranks in the top 10, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nRankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.397,
      "implied_probability": 0.397,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3231.124125,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-7BE8FE92A7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "market cap ranking",
        "newly launched cryptocurrency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-112QRNCGD6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}