{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Z16Y0LPV1",
  "slug": "will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-before-2027",
  "question": "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "abraham-accords",
    "middle-east",
    "diplomatic-expansion",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any new country will formally sign the Abraham Accords before January 1, 2027. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing public announcements by the Israeli government and signatory nations. No cross-platform contrast exists; only one market is listed. Formal signature, not diplomatic engagement, is the resolution threshold.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9NR36RKRQ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9NR36RKRQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0Z16Y0LPV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0a26a2aeaee92f943b6a5649c4a096766f07675c6c710527fca730bd1e395797",
      "question": "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Public announcements by the Israeli government and signatory nations confirming a new country's formal signature of a normalization agreement under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4714.177418,
      "volume_total_usd": 223084.86249100007,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords expansion",
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0Z16Y0LPV1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}