{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DD3YRSRKM2",
  "slug": "will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-by-august-31-1785517679415",
  "question": "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "abraham-accords",
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east-diplomacy",
    "trump",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any non-signatory country formally joins the Abraham Accords before August 31, 2026. Resolution relies on official public statements from the Israeli government and the prospective signatory's government. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, with no corroborating Kalshi market to provide a structural cross-reference. The single-platform binary structure leaves directional consensus entirely to this contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8BY3G32X6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.023,
    "implied_probability": 0.023
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8BY3G32X6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DD3YRSRKM2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x44fbc0c0af0f9d175d0a84c850b706c3046cec5cacfa6f2baf5e3e763c9baec9",
      "question": "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this e",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official public statements and announcements from the Israeli government and the government of any non-signatory country confirming a formal normalization agreement signed by August 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus for credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 496.162293,
      "volume_total_usd": 48970.486905000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "abraham accords expansion",
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DD3YRSRKM2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}