{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HNMHJ3HPB4",
  "slug": "will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-by-july-31-20260626214759163",
  "question": "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "abraham-accords",
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "diplomatic-recognition",
    "2026",
    "trump"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any country not previously party to the Abraham Accords formally joins by July 31, 2026. Resolution requires official public statements and formal agreements from both Israel and the acceding government. A single platform covers this event; no cross-platform structural contrast applies. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, meaning disputed outcomes can be escalated by token holders before finalization.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K4J9QQVCM6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.026,
    "implied_probability": 0.026
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K4J9QQVCM6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HNMHJ3HPB4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8aca7a9e928f1ce19903657274597ce4705ea7ac6b47e9f240f2677e45814da5",
      "question": "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this eve",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official public statements and formal agreements from the governments of Israel and any non-signatory country confirming a new Abraham Accords normalization agreement signed by July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 43885.820166,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abraham accords",
        "abraham accords expansion",
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HNMHJ3HPB4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}