{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P394L6GV45",
  "slug": "will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027",
  "question": "Will a US ally acquire nuclear weapons by 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "nuclear-proliferation",
    "us-allies",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "international-security",
    "trump"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a US-allied state acquires nuclear weapons capability before end of 2026. Resolution requires confirmation from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources. Only one market exists here; no cross-platform structural contrast applies. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, introducing disputable interpretation around what constitutes confirmed acquisition.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9PVXRJTWN5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.042,
    "implied_probability": 0.042
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PVXRJTWN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P394L6GV45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x17ba5a7a08bd3f7f87487285c5713e305b8fc98ec4849d5a05ecdf111856c428",
      "question": "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nIf a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for \"Yes\" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "International nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirming that a US ally without nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses an operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nIf a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for \"Yes\" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"US ally\" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "state.gov",
            "url": "https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "international nuclear agencies",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a claimant government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible global news sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 134651.37291800007,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "nuclear",
        "proliferation",
        "us allies",
        "us ally nuclear"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P394L6GV45",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}