{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HDLDKRCQ11",
  "slug": "will-alberta-join-the-us",
  "question": "Will Alberta join the United States?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-expansion",
    "canada-sovereignty",
    "territorial-integration",
    "2026-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the probability that Alberta formally joins the United States by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires an official announcement by both the United States and Canadian governments, or de facto territorial transfer. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, which introduces a subjectivity risk around what constitutes a qualifying government announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-R33221V707",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.022,
    "implied_probability": 0.022
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R33221V707",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HDLDKRCQ11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf8e1b655885e0b49fc934c10672c13c68a3c19c895496326215d5f63293428a5",
      "question": "Will Alberta join the US? ",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Canada that A",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An official announcement by the United States and Canadian governments, or de facto transfer of Alberta's majority territory to US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2188708.189963139,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alberta",
        "alberta political status",
        "canada",
        "geopolitics",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HDLDKRCQ11",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}