{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8M61X764X7",
  "slug": "will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679",
  "question": "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by December 31, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "international-law",
    "genocide-accountability",
    "israel-palestine",
    "icc-icj",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether a recognized international tribunal issues a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders by December 31, 2027. The single Polymarket binary prices only the outcome: guilty or not guilty. No rate-level or margin structure exists here; the market resolves on a formal judgment. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring a documented ruling from the International Criminal Court, International Court of Justice, or a UN-established ad hoc tribunal.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-STR13ZND19",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-STR13ZND19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8M61X764X7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7cff26b00a03b31be433d246702afb71622ab248e21447151ad04569730fc984",
      "question": "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if he International Criminal Court (\"ICC\"), the International Court of Justice (\"ICJ\"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.\n\nA first-instan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The International Criminal Court, International Court of Justice, or UN-established ad hoc tribunal issues a judgment finding Israel or Israeli officials committed genocide by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if he International Criminal Court (\"ICC\"), the International Court of Justice (\"ICJ\"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.\n\nA first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for \"Yes\" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.\n\nPreliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. \n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "International Criminal Court (\"ICC\")",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "International Court of Justice (\"ICJ\")",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ad hoc international tribunal",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 28,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 91398.54411300005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "genocide",
        "international court",
        "israel",
        "israel genocide conviction",
        "legal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8M61X764X7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}