{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BC92JMF369",
  "slug": "will-another-country-leave-opec-in-2026",
  "question": "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "opec",
    "international-organizations",
    "energy-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any current OPEC member formally announces withdrawal from the organization before December 31, 2026. Only one platform prices this event, so no cross-platform structural contrast exists. Resolution relies on official OPEC member withdrawal announcements, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-47JZYB6M01",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.15,
    "implied_probability": 0.15
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-47JZYB6M01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BC92JMF369",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3d4a1a3e0581eb60fdd03cc85b8190a9a1cfbda42f1aa9771e39197f8a21f441",
      "question": "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?",
      "description": "On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will su",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements by OPEC member countries of their withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the respective governments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 735.324242,
      "volume_total_usd": 157874.79521300003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "opec",
        "opec membership",
        "organization"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BC92JMF369",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}