{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSKC0W6LK9",
  "slug": "will-anthropic-flip-btc-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "crypto-prices",
    "ai-company-finance",
    "bitcoin-valuation",
    "market-cap-comparison",
    "tech-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Anthropic's private valuation will exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization by December 31, 2026. Only one platform structures this as a binary outcome; no competing rate-level or continuous-range market exists for cross-platform comparison. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing CoinGecko's Bitcoin market capitalization data against publicly announced Anthropic valuations. Both inputs carry significant measurement uncertainty: private valuations are disclosed irregularly, and crypto market cap fluctuates continuously.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KMXWHK14L6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.7,
    "implied_probability": 0.7
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KMXWHK14L6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MSKC0W6LK9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c0d7c74bbf6ef1e0114e6f75514e3360673e15b6542b78a95363a41c24089d3",
      "question": "Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.\n\nFor Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitl",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's Bitcoin market capitalization data and publicly announced Anthropic valuations through December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.\n\nFor Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. \n\nThe resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinMarketCap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.466665,
      "volume_total_usd": 161626.8023809996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-86B1F41982",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "bitcoin",
        "event"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MSKC0W6LK9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}